Reading the tea leaves is the name of the game, if all of these were slam dunks they wouldn't be trading where they are. You can write these longs tomes all you want, but you aren't sharing any insight, just regurgitating common knowledge.
Inititially, I simply pointed out that you shouldn't conflate $DFTX and $ATAI with $CMPS . BTW, this isn't your personally, private space. It's a forum. You seem very sensitive, Filip. I can't imangine if you were really getting trolled.
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Got it. So you’re admitting you have no proof, just your interpretation of the tea leaves, yet you’re still very confident about how this administration will treat $DFTX & $ATAI versus CMPS.
Are you sure I’m the one who doesn’t know how things work? The idea that one text from Rogan is what got the entire Executive Order in place? The FDA has been working with psychedelic developers for years — well before this administration. They’ve already granted Breakthrough Therapy Designations to multiple compounds. All the specific language around BTD programs receiving priority vouchers didn’t come from a casual text. Trump isn’t sitting in the details of these regulatory processes. He says a lot of things for effect. Yes, it’s no secret that a lot of decisions are politicized, but to think Trump has a say in every little detail of every executive order is simply not accurate. He has advisors and experts of all kinds, and the specific verbiage in the Executive Order is there for a reason. Again, time will tell. Not you, not me, and no one who isn’t an actual insider can say for sure.
You came to my posts first with a dismissive framing of DFTX, then got personal when I pushed back. I’ve stayed respectful the whole time. What we can do is be respectful with our opinions, especially when we go out of our way to challenge others — at least return that same energy respectfully.
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I'm starting to think that you have no idea how this current administration actually works and view it as some bastion of academic/medical integrity independent from the whims of the executive office. I suggest you ask Makary how that worked out.
$CMPS was the easiest political win for the Trump administration because it also gets them to a veteran PTSD treatment soonest. I would expect longer approval times, ADCOMs, and quite a different path forward for $DFTX LSD and $ATAI DMT related compounds.
You can disagree, but I think I am reading the political tea leaves correctly. It is Trump's show and he doesn't even believe in drug-use for anxiety, he believes people should 'stay busy', he just wanted to appease Rogan.
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What I’m pushing back on is the original framing. The post strongly implied $DFTX and $ATAI were essentially stuck waiting on political help with very little momentum of their own (“Dear Mr. President, please drive LSD/DMT through the FDA/DEA/trigger bill car wash”). That came across as more dismissive than just “different animals.”
A few points:
• Different indications matter. CMPS is focused on TRD while DFTX’s lead programs are in GAD and MDD. They’re not fighting for exactly the same patients or clinic capacity in the same way. So no one implied they are the same trade.
• Everyone already knows CMPS is ahead on timeline and has made more regulatory progress so far. That part isn’t in dispute.
• The original post didn’t just say CMPS is further along on the launch path. It painted DFTX/ATAI as largely dependent on external political intervention while downplaying their ongoing clinical execution and policy engagement. The follow-up softens that, but the initial framing was stronger than “they’re just at different stages.”
On top of that, you went out of your way in earlier comments to suggest that anything “not psilocybin” would effectively get shut down because “the Commissioner will do as he’s told” — with no actual evidence provided for that. That’s a pretty strong claim to make without substantiation, especially since both the FDA and the administration have already signaled openness to multiple psychedelic compounds through Breakthrough Therapy Designations, the Executive Order, and constructive engagement across several programs.
Catalyst path and launch path are different, agreed. But having multiple Phase 3 readouts landing this year still represents real, near-term value creation potential — even if commercial setup comes later.
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I’m not saying $DFTX has no path. I’m saying “upcoming readouts” and “commercial launch setup” are different animals.
$CMPS is already on the launch pad.
By the time $DFTX / $ATAI are still having more “constructive FDA engagement” around an NDA path and lobbying for state scheduling, a cohort of $CMPS patients will already be in remission.
Catalyst path ≠launch path.
Could work. Not the same trade.
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Framing it like $DFTX and $ATAI are just sitting there waiting for political intervention to “drive it through the car wash” isn’t accurate. DFTX has multiple Phase 3 studies with top-line data dropping over the next few months. Those readouts are the real catalyst here, not some Hail Mary from DC.
On the centers piece, they addressed this directly in the last earnings call — treatment rooms are straightforward to set up in existing facilities with minimal new infrastructure, and they noted that clinicians are already preparing space amid growing anticipation for these therapies, including high anticipation for DT120. This came directly from $DFTX’s Chief Commercial Officer during their Q1 earnings call.
We also can’t assume the centers momentum is only for one company. The White House Executive Order was framed broadly around accelerating psychedelic treatments across compounds, not just one. Multiple companies publicly supported it, including DFTX. Both DFTX and ATAI have had constructive engagement with the FDA — DFTX also sponsored a May panel at The Hill featuring remarks from one of its executives alongside sitting Congressman Rep. Jack Bergman. DFTX’s CEO was also quoted in the White House’s announcement supporting the Executive Order. This level of engagement with the FDA, Congress and the administration makes it difficult to argue that DFTX or ATAI has no meaningful path forward. No one can confidently say the administration or clinics would only be open to one approach when the policy direction and all this evidence has pointed toward broader access.
So yeah, different timelines and risk profiles. But being very confident in opinions about who’s ahead today doesn’t make them facts. None of us can know for certain how this plays out until the data arrives and execution is tested. The upcoming readouts and how well each company delivers from here will decide the outcomes — not where things currently stand on a timeline.
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FinansFredrik retweeted
Jun 12
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Appreciate the input from both of you.
I don’t think anything is set in stone yet. Even though a lot of the current language and momentum is centered around pharmaceutical psilocybin, that doesn’t mean it’s going to stay that way. A lot can still change as $DFTX and $ATAI move through the FDA process and get closer to potential approval.
CMPS is clearly ahead right now with the CNPV and rolling review, and that’s meaningful. At the same time, both DFTX and ATAI have Breakthrough Therapy Designation, and the broader executive order plus growing state-level interest could still create tailwinds for non-psilocybin programs. It’s not set up that way right now, but things can shift. Will they? We don’t know for sure — but that’s essentially what I’m betting on as an investor. Regulatory paths can evolve, and the final implementation of these policies isn’t fully clear yet.
My view is we should stay open to all possibilities, which is why I hold positions in all three. No one knows for certain how this plays out. You both make great points, and I’m staying optimistic that all three can find their place in the industry.
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First, you need an approved drug, that's two years out. I went through this with Filip before:
Assuming $DFTX & $ATAI will simply follow the same expedited $CMPS path underestimates the actual track record. CMPS (psilocybin) got the CNPV in the April batch rolling NDA review. DFTX (LSD) and ATAI/BPL-003 (5-MeO-DMT) both have BTD but were not included.
The June 4 public hearing specifically called out politicization in those psychedelic voucher decisions. Most state trigger laws are written explicitly around pharmaceutical psilocybin — not LSD or 5-MeO-DMT.
Broad EO language is one thing. Actual implementation state-level friction is another. Voucher as base case for the non-psilocybin programs isn’t supported by what’s happened so far.
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Jun 12
Watch list calendar
ONLY CLEAR DATA THE MONDAY AFTER
TITLE: BioPharmCatalyst Weekly Watchlist: Countdown To The End of The Quarter#
Article Link: biopharmcatalyst.com/news/20…^
SEOTITLE: BioPharmCatalyst Weekly Watchlist: Countdown To The End of The Quarter
DESCRIPTION: Explore this week’s biotech stock watchlist. Key Tickers such as NVCR stock , ACHV stock, DFTX stock, MLTX stock, UNCY stock, NMRA stock, GSK stock, VTGN stock, IRD stock and UTHR stock Get daily biotech investing insights, catalysts, news and more after-hours movers. Daily updates in our biotech investing newsletter
KEYWORDS: biotech, biotech companies, biotech stock analysis, FDA calendar, oncology stocks, pharmaceutical stock, investing newsletter
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Jun 12
Real-time alerts for investment buy and sell
$KMI
$MXL
$DFTX
He posts 3 to 5 stock quotes every day.
@EnclaveFXTechno
Those who are interested can pay attention; after all, there's no harm in doing more.
Hope this helps you
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