Game theory from here is super interesting: Original Mags (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) now have a serious non-zero opportunity to tank the frontier labs. Go to the government, kneecap the labs’ motion of putting the latest models out in the wild, become the trusted gatekeeper between the labs and the public at large (including internationally) by having the labs go through their clouds (AWS, GCP, Azure) and implement strict KYC to seal the deal. The frontier labs should have seen this coming years ago and implemented a robust KYC for just this moment. The fact they didn’t is kind of concerning. Why did they not do it? Best guess is because it would have changed the run-rate revenues (downward) which would have then changed funding dynamics - lower valuations, more dilution, less secondary. A valuation reset may happen now anyways, except the labs may end up with less control and more restrictions at the end of it. At the same time, everyone is already clamoring about token prices of the old models from the labs anyways… This couldn’t be a better setup for open source and neoclouds. Big question is can they meet the moment? There are too few of them and their progress seems sporadic at best.

Holy ****

"Attracting new and creative sources of highly efficient capital (news soon)" - $NBIS CCO A sovereign AI investment from EU, UK, or even US could be on the table. I'm expecting good news because an exec wouldn't hype up a financing news just to drop a new ATM. There's also a Softbank investment possibility, @DrTomsLens explained it in the tweet below:

I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.

Anthropic @AnthropicAI & @DarioAmodei may be criminally liable under 18 U.S.C. § 1343 & a host of state criminal and civil statutes, as well as dishonest practices under FTC mythos fiasco is deeply disturbing & subpoenas may show planning by a co that has been dishonest before

The US just made the case for sovereign AI. Friday it ordered Anthropic to cut foreign access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Both dark overnight. A frontier model Washington can switch off isn’t infrastructure. Open weights can’t be killed. Nebius’s co-founder @romanchernin said: “Start with frontier models → grow usage → collect data → tune cheaper models → get margins.” The open-weight migration isn’t Nebius’s risk. It’s the plan. Sovereign AI runs open. $NBIS

Only 24 hours later and I look like a complete fool on this $NBIS bear thesis, but that's perfectly okay. The market flipped back to a 10/10 bullish environment, which pretty much instantly invalidated the thesis. Then add the NASDAQ-100 inclusion on top of that, and yeah...I'm toast here. That's trading. You make a thesis, share it publicly, and when the market proves you wrong, you adapt and move on. Let's get the party started again for AI data center names!

Me right now... $NBIS

nebius seems pretty good

$NBIS 180p $2 million hmmm