Why DLocal
$DLO is one of the best long-term asymmetric opportunities in fintech right now. 👇
The stock is currently trading around $12.25 after a brutal drawdown (-64% from highs), but the fundamentals scream buy-and-hold for the next 5-10 years.
👉 Imo this is a high-quality compounder at a depressed valuation.
The Business
dLocal is a technology-first payments platform that lets global merchants (big tech, e-commerce, streaming, ride-hailing, gaming, etc.) seamlessly accept payments and make payouts in 60 emerging markets across Latin America, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
• The moat 🏰: One API, one contract, one platform: access to 1,000 local & alternative payment methods by handling local regulations, fragmented banking, currency, compliance, taxes.
• Serves 700-760 merchants/PSPs, including many demanding mega-cap tech companies.
• Strong moat from 10 years of licenses, local presence, data advantages, and switching costs.
👉 It's the "picks and shovels" for the explosion of digital commerce in the Global South.
Massive TAM
• Current addressable digital payments in markets dLocal serves: ~$1.4-2T , growing at high teens CAGR.
• Broader EM digital payments TAM projected to hit ~$3.7T by 2028.
• eCommerce in these regions heading toward $3T by 2030.
• 6 in 10 people on Earth live in these markets.
• Secular tailwinds: rising middle class, smartphone penetration, e-commerce adoption, digitalization.
👉 dLocal has barely scratched the surface, plenty of runway for geographic expansion, deeper merchant penetration, new products (BNPL, stablecoins, more APMs), and share gains.
Recent Financials (Impressive Scale Growth)
• 2025 Full Year: Record TPV $41B ( 60% YoY), Revenue crossed $1.09B ( 47%), Gross Profit $403M ( 37%), Net Income $197M ( 63%). Adjusted FCF strong (~$191M, 97% conversion).
• Q1 2026: TPV $14.1B ( 73% YoY), Revenue $336M ( 55%), Gross Profit $119M ( 40%).
• Net revenue retention 145% , TPV retention 158%, merchants stick and grow massively.
• High-teens to 20% revenue growth expected for years, with operating leverage kicking in post-investments.
• Profitable, cash generative, initiated dividends $300M buyback authorization.
👉 Despite some FX/macro noise and temporary margin pressure, the core engine is firing on all cylinders with broad-based growth across regions and verticals.
Why Long-Term Bull Case is So Strong
• Asymmetric upside: High-growth (50-60% TPV guidance), capital-light model, expanding margins, network effects.
• Trading at a reasonable multiple on current earnings/growth given the TAM and execution track record.
• Management is obsessed with customers and thinking in decades, not quarters.
Bottom line 👉 The market is giving you a sale on a category-leading emerging markets payments winner during a period of digestion. Emerging markets digitalization isn't stopping.If you have a 3-5 year horizon and believe in the rise of the Global South,
$DLO is a top-tier compounder.
What do you think: undervalued gem or too risky? Let's discuss.
#Fintech #Investing #EmergingMarkets