IPO NEXT YEAR MOVING FORWARD $FNMA #FANNIEGATE

1/ The "you need an act of Congress, wait a few more years" take on Fannie & Freddie is wrong. Here's why I'm not worried, and why the preferred are the trade. 🧵 2/ The bear's own evidence sinks him. If nothing's happening, why is Congress drafting bills to end conservatorship right now? Fitzgerald's bill is "coming weeks." Hill has one. HR 1209 is on the board. Trump floated a ~$30B IPO. Not a town sitting still. town sitting still. 3/ But you don't even need Congress. Treasury FHFA can end conservatorship administratively by amending the PSPAs. We have the 2021 precedent. The legislation is the bow on the package, not the engine. The admin track is the one moving now. 4/ The bears hide behind one thing: an explicit, unlimited federal guarantee on MBS. It's what the 2019 Treasury plan teed up and what the MBA and the big banks have demanded "first" for years to keep the companies in limbo. My take: they never get it. 5/ That guarantee dies a quiet death in the years after admin action. Release never needed it; the implied guarantee the market already prices does the job. The lobby that built its delay on "no guarantee, no release" is about to watch release happen without it. 6/ Now the trade. Forget the common. Treasury holds warrants for 79.9% of it. Add the senior pref conversion (~$234B preference) and a new raise, and the common gets diluted into oblivion. Even the bears nail it by accident: "own the common, you'll still lose." Right. 7/ That's not a bear case. It's the bull case for the PREFERRED. Junior prefs have a par anchor, trade at a discount, and a clean path to being made whole as the stack rebuilds. When priority of claims matters again, the preferred sit in the right seat. 8/ Not a coin toss, not an indefinite wait. A process already underway, on a track that doesn't need what the bears claim, ending in a structure where the preferred win. Focus on the positives. There are a lot of them. Full writeup 👇 glenbradford.com/blog/you-do… $FNMA #FANNIEGATE 9/ Disclosure: I own junior preferred. Opinion/analysis, not advice. Do your own work.

NATIONAL HOME OWNERSHIP MONTH LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I asked a few specifics to Claude inside Copilot and it summarized it up pretty well here. It's narcissism, denial, and a mental breakdown - identity crisis (that no one cares about because they are like 6 people). Long $FNMA $FMCC - common sense - no attacks just facts.