Good math, but not all quite there: First, SpaceX pays fairly average, but for more than a decade they have offered regular (~bi-annual) liquidity to employees. To live comfortably (especially to have a family) in LA County, most employees would have sold a little bit here and there, if not a lot (e.g., if they were the sole earner in a household). Second, critically, because there is no double trigger (in order to facilitate the liquidity), most people default to "sell-to-cover" — i.e., ~40-50% of their holdings are immediately sold to cover the taxes on vest. Remember these vests are W-2 events. In order to not do this, the employee would need to come up with significant cash (because the taxes are paid against the price at vest, not the price at grant) — especially later on. However, two things make SpaceX particularly awesome IMO: 1. They gave employees the option to choose stock or options along the way. Someone who took options and paid the taxes with cash would have done very well. 2. They gave stock to everyone. There are a bunch of highly skilled workers that we on X never think of, like Tube Benders, Orbital Tube Welders, Cleanroom Technicians, etc. that are going to make significant fortunes. Maybe it's overly quixotic, but this last point is underrated part of @elonmusk attacking physical problems, not just software ones, with 100x thinking: a bunch of people in the types of jobs America needs and romanticizes (for good reason) will be rewarded with the kind of wealth that really would not be possible at any other company they would have chosen. An incredibly positive story that, if you can't see it in that light, you should look inward.

A recent report shows only 0.04% betting market users account for over 70% of profitable bets. Young men are increasingly turning to online betting markets like Kalshi, as they are disproportionately impacted by rising unemployment. This also raises questions about the purpose of online betting markets, as it is statistically impossible for 0.04% of users to account for 70% of profitable bets without exploiting insider information.

Worsening. This not good. This very bad.