SpaceX IPO: The Numbers Are In 🚀
After working through the full prospectus, my verdict: SpaceX is worth ~$97.83/share (~$1.3T equity) — but it’s pricing at $135 (~$1.8T). Overvalued by 38%.
What the prospectus revealed:
•2025 revenue hit $18.7B ( 33% YoY). xAI came in 32× higher than I estimated — $3.2B vs. ~$100M.
•Capital structure: $22.9B debt, but offset by $24.7B cash → net debt slightly negative.
The three businesses, three different stories:
•🛰️ Connectivity (Starlink) — the crown jewel. 50% revenue growth, operating margin jumped from 17% → 39%. Best risk/reward of the trio.
•🚀 Space — strongest unit economics (67% gross margin), reusability driving improvement. R&D-heavy but should level off.
•🤖 AI (xAI) — the swing factor. Massive TAM optionality but worst margins and most capital-intensive. This is where the bull/bear case lives or dies.
The DCF math(via my Professor Aswath Damodaran framework): $400B revenue target by 2036, 8.25% terminal cost of capital → $1.3T equity value, $97.83/share.
Bottom line: The market is paying for an aspirational outcome. Intrinsic value supports ~$98, not $135.
•Investors: Pass at the rumored price. A pass at IPO ≠ never own — let price come to value(We invested earlier and participated IPO round also. Will hold long-term definitely).
•Traders: A pop at $1.8T is entirely plausible. Don’t short — mood beats math short-term.
This is a leveraged bet on futuristic tech and on Musk personally. For some that’s disqualifying; for others, his Tesla track record tilts the odds. Both views are legitimate — price them into your position.
My number: $97.83. The market may say $1.8–2T. Both can be defended — but only one belongs in a long-term portfolio at the offer.
— Jackson | IPOEXPRESS