Oswal Pumps just dropped Q4 & FY26 results.
FY26 numbers are genuinely impressive on the surface:
Revenue grew 44% to ₹2,064 Cr.
PAT grew 34% to ₹376 Cr — highest ever.
EPS came in at ₹34.73.
And the company is now almost debt-free (D/E went from 0.99x to 0.08x thanks to the IPO).
EBITDA margin slipped from 29.4% to 24.9%.
Gross margin slipped from 44.1% to 39.3%.
That's 446 bps of operating margin gone in one year.
Management calls it "competitive tender pricing and input cost pressures from geopolitical uncertainties." Fair enough — it's true. But on a ₹2,000 Cr base, that compression is real money.
Receivable days also stretched from 111 to 155. State nodal agencies are paying late. Q4 cash flow did turn decisively positive at ₹170 Cr, and a ₹116 Cr collection on April 2nd flipped the full year to a hair above breakeven, but the full year reported CFO is still negative ₹77 Cr.
So the cash engine is repairing itself — just not yet repaired.
Now here's the part that nobody is talking about.
Direct PM KUSUM revenue actually DROPPED in FY26.
₹961 Cr in FY25 to ₹535 Cr in FY26. That's a 44% fall.
So where did the 44% topline growth come from?
One scheme. One state.
Magel Tyala. Maharashtra.
Revenue from this single state scheme went from ₹23 Cr to ₹964 Cr in a year. Roughly 42x.
Oswal supplied 42,119 pumps under Magel Tyala alone — that's nearly 40% of all pumps it has ever supplied to any government, anywhere.
This is concentration risk dressed up as diversification.
To be fair, management is trying to diversify — first PM Surya Ghar order is in, a 60% JV with Doon Infrapower has been set up for Rajasthan rooftop projects, and they're building a 300 MW pipeline across rooftop, utility, and C&I solar. But today, the engine is one state.
What's the forward look?
Order book: 19,912 pumps with letters of award.
Pipeline beyond that: 25,000 more.
PM KUSUM 2.0: expected to roll out in FY27. Management is positioning for it.
And on capital — ₹271 Cr of IPO money is still unutilized. Most of it earmarked for the new Karnal manufacturing units. Capacity expansion isn't done; it's loaded.
My take:
This was a "record on paper, pressure under the hood" kind of year.
The balance sheet is pristine now.
The order book is healthy.
But margins compressed sharply, working capital is stretched, and the FY26 growth came from one Maharashtra scheme that won't repeat at the same intensity.
FY27 will be decided by three things:
— When PM KUSUM 2.0 actually rolls out
— How fast state nodal agencies clear receivables
— Whether the 300 MW rooftop/utility pipeline converts to revenue
The stock is already ~57% below its 52-week high, so a fair bit of the worry is in the price. From here it's no longer a story stock. It's an execution stock.
I'll be watching Q1 and Q2 closely.
Not a recommendation. Just sharing what I read in the deck.