I've had a favoured sector recommendation on
$JSECMH Combined Motor Holdings since March 2021 versus its largest sector comparative
$JSEMTH Motus. It's been a pretty good call
Since October,
#MTH has outperformed
#CMH and with both stocks having results ahead December H1 (
#MTH) and FebruaryYE25 (
#CMH) a better look through should ensue
#MTH has a June reporting year end and
#CMH February so timing is often something I consider
#MTH has a high debt load.
#CMH carries fat net cash Thus #
#MTH is a better beneficiary in a declining interest rate environment as South Africa is currently in
Both have marques in popular areas.
#MTH Hyundai as example as master agents and
#CMH has Suzuki. Affordable vehicles are doing well currently as as the Chinese brands
Both have car rental with
#MTH having Europcar (c. 10% of its profit) and
#CMH has First Car Rental which is c.50% of profit. In the current inbound tourism season - a bumper one is anticipated -
#CMH should gain more skin
As & when new vehicle sales improve & bank lending loosens and consumers feel more confident both will be beneficiaries though I'm watching the Rand volatility, it is now the vehicle importers friend
Further,
#MTH as a R22.1bn Mcap business versus
#CMH R2.4bn,
#MTH has greater liquidity which should draw in investors especially the big insto's and offshore funds
#CMH remains this desk's favoured play despite
#MTH making a new 52-week intra-day high today
I like the businesses conservatism, owner-managers with big skin in the game & the net cash position which gives
#CMH nimbleness
Currently
#CMH is behind
#MTH in the past two months, I anticipate it will play catch-up into Q1 2025