Claude Code 3 Simple Models = Your Own Polymarket Analyst
Most Polymarket traders run on intuition and headlines
But one person with Claude Code, market data, and 3 simple models can build a proper research desk
Here are the details:
> Model 1: Reaction ModelWhat happens to price after a big trade? Measure the move after 5, 15, 60 min. If the pattern repeats, it's signal, not noise
Δp = p(t h) − p(t)
> Model 2: Mispricing ModelMarket says 42% Your model says 51%. That 9% gap is your edge. Buy probabilities, not narratives
Edge = p_model − p_market
> Model 3: Risk / Sizing ModelRight signal wrong size = loss. Most traders don't fail on prediction they fail on sizing. Keep it disciplined
f = k × Edge
The workflow:Idea → Claude Code → Script → Data → Test → Result