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Repligen
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Melt-up i Tools i USA. Thermo Fisher 7%, Repligen 10%, Danaher 4% för att nämna några. Branschens tillväxt vänder nu. AZT upp 7% idag, GENO 3%. More to come 🤞🏻
Sammantaget tycker jag Tools-branschen ser extremt intressant ut:
- värderingar på flerårslägsta
- efterfrågan förbättras på kort sikt
- långsiktiga drivare som AI och relocation
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RNA vaccines curing cancer is an interesting framework to look at roundtrips and valuations, it was the most recent global viral "supercool new thing" before AI.
TMO share price peaked at 30x LTM PE. Fine. Sensible, Like Nvidia. Though it only grew revenues at 50% at the peak, not 100%.
Sartorius Stedim peaked at 100-120x PE (this is equivalent to what today, WFE?).
Repligen got to 300x PE, share price peaked later at 180x PE.
MRNA / Pfizer share price peaked at 50x / 20x PE as earnings grew (PE was higher on the way there, PE contraction always a sign).
CRL peaked at 60x PE (equivalent to what today, OSAT?)
Multiple going up all good green light. After that, when share price keeps going up but multiple stops going up and stays rangebound at 100x like Stedim or contracts like Repligen or MRNA, the end is 6 months away.
Or maybe not this time.
Maybe is faster, because people remember.
Where did the money go after?
Everyone trying to fade these semis moves. Maybe this analog resonates more than the dot com bubble...
Did you guys learn nothing during COVID?
Go look at every life sciences chart $DHR $TMO $CRL $IQV $MRNA $PFE $RGEN $NVAX. You had shtcos and realcos flying to insane multiples on insane fundamentals.
The assumptions you had to underwrite to were so insane -- an endless wave of biopharma innovation. Ppl literally extrapolated to 'we are going to cure cancer tmwr w/MRNA'.
In comparison, what's happening today is not that crazy. Yet...
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Apr 29
American hospitals just ran out of the chemotherapy drug used to treat children with leukemia.
The drug costs sixty-three cents a dose.
It has been in clinical use since 1978.
It is older than the parents of the kids who need it.
There is no shortage of the chemical.
There is a shortage of any company willing to manufacture it.
323 prescription drugs are in active shortage in the United States right now.
Cancer drugs. Antibiotics. Saline IV bags. Adderall. The drug a child uses to come out of an asthma attack.
Cisplatin and carboplatin, the two oldest workhorse chemo agents in modern oncology, were unavailable in roughly 500 American hospitals last year.
The reason is mathematical, not medical.
Generic sterile injectable drugs sell for less than a cup of coffee.
Manufacturing them requires factories that meet FDA Class 100 cleanroom standards. Continuous environmental monitoring. Batch sterilization. Redundant quality systems.
The capital cost of one such factory is hundreds of millions of dollars. The margin on each vial is pennies.
When the price collapses to sixty-three cents, the American manufacturer cannot service the debt on the cleanroom.
The factory closes.
Manufacturing moves to India and China where wage costs are lower and FDA inspectors land less often.
80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredient feeding into American generic drugs is now made overseas. A meaningful share comes from a single Chinese province.
In July 2023 a tornado tore through a Pfizer warehouse in Rocky Mount, North Carolina that produced a quarter of all sterile injectable drugs used in American hospitals.
Across the next 18 months, dozens of drugs went into shortage.
The FDA's official response is a voluntary notification rule that asks manufacturers to please tell the agency if they plan to stop making something. Most do not.
Last summer hospitals across the country were rationing carboplatin doses.
Pediatric oncologists wrote to the FDA in panic.
The agency told pharmacists to use clinical judgment about which children to delay.
The American medical system is now structurally dependent on factories it does not own, in countries it does not regulate, for drugs it cannot replace.
HOW TO MAKE MONEY FROM THIS:
1. Long West Pharmaceutical Services (WST). They make the vials, stoppers, and syringes every sterile injectable drug requires. The picks and shovels of the entire industry. Roughly 70 percent gross margin. Compounded 15 percent annually for three decades.
2. Long Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY). They are spending more than $25 billion combined on new American manufacturing capacity. The largest pharma capex cycle in history.
3. Long the equipment vendors selling into them. Repligen (RGEN), Bio-Techne (TECH), Danaher (DHR). Every dollar of new sterile injectable capacity flows through their order books.
4. Long the contract manufacturers. Catalent was just bought by Novo Nordisk for $16.5 billion in 2024 to lock up sterile injectable capacity for GLP-1 production. The remaining listed peers Lonza (LONN.SW) and Samsung Biologics will get rerated.
5. Watch Civica Rx. Founded as a non-profit by Intermountain Healthcare to bypass the broken generic market. Private today. The for-profit followers will compound for two decades.
I'm hosting a once-in-a-lifetime free webinar where I go over the exact things I know as a former banker and world class investor.
100 percent free to join.
Sign up at felixfriends.org/live
Link is also in my comments.
(a kid in a midwest hospital is waiting for a drug that costs sixty-three cents. the factory that makes it had to close because the margin no longer paid the lease. somewhere in india a different factory is firing up the same drug to ship into the same shortage. the dose is the same. the price is the same. the supply chain is two oceans long. she is eight years old.)
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En #Repligen $RGEN el deterioro técnico existe, pero no todas las caídas exigen reaccionar igual. En este vídeo explico qué me hace esperar todavía y qué tendría que pasar para cambiar de criterio. #bolsa #inversion #WallStreet
youtu.be/gzZgVEWicSo
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Apr 22
Sesión delicada para #Repligen $RGEN tras perder soporte y también la media de 50 sesiones. En el vídeo repaso qué señales estoy vigilando antes de mover ficha y por qué el escenario aún no está del todo resuelto. #trading #bolsa #WallStreet
youtu.be/gzZgVEWicSo
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🚨 US Stock Volume Alert 🚨
Massive volume momentum spikes detected in key stocks 👇
You can access on zentroza.com
🔍 Top Movers:
#HPE ↑ 7.87% | 🔥3.39x Volume
(Hewlett Packard Enterprise Comp)
#ONON ↓ -11.2% | 🔥 6.58x Volume
(On Holding AG)
#GNRC ↓ -1.94% |🔥 4.88x Volume
(Generac Holdlings Inc.)
#RGEN ↓-1.70% | 🔥 1.82x Volume
(Repligen Corporation)
📊 Volume isn’t noise. It’s smart money moving.
💎 The scanners don’t lie. Data is the edge.
#StockMarket #MarketRecovery #NASDAQ #TradingOpportunities #NYSE #WallStreetBuzz
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Mar 23
$RGEN | Repligen maintained at Buy by HC Wainwright.
Analyst reiterates bullish outlook, signaling continued confidence in growth potential.
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