UBS on
$MU:
Our supply chain work on Long Term Agreements (LTAs) across the memory industry suggests that up to 30% of DDR volumes industry-wide will be soon locked in at pricing that is just slightly below current levels
we now expect the DRAM industry to remain undersupplied until at least C2Q28 (vs. 4Q27 prior), and NAND undersupply to last until 4Q27 (was 3Q27).
At this point, we believe hyperscalers alone to have currently secured ~60-70%βof the industry Server DDR5 volumes under 'enhanced' LTAs - in other words, guaranteeing MU and others offtake for this volum
Even more important, this scenario yields MUβEPS of >$100 even out in C2029E when we do believe DRAM pricing will undergo a fairly significant correction. In other words, we think MU still earns >$100 even if pricing for the floating portion of DDR declines by ~50%.