Every evening,
@matthewkerridge updates the community with his Smarter Web Tracker.
Last Friday, SWC closed the week at number 499 in the FTSE rankings.
The first target is position 325, which would mean automatic inclusion in the FTSE 250. As of Friday, that would require a market cap of around £505 million.
Sounds miles away, doesn't it?
Maybe not.
With the Capital Reduction vote underway, most shareholders I speak to believe SWC will eventually follow the path laid out by companies like MicroStrategy and issue preferred shares to acquire more Bitcoin.
Under the Bitcoin Power Law, Bitcoin is currently fairly valued at around £104,500 ($140,000). The next FTSE review takes place in September. If Bitcoin returns to that fair value by then, SWC would need approximately 4,832 BTC to reach the FTSE 250 threshold.
If the target isn't reached until the December review, that figure falls to around 4,105 BTC because the Power Law fair value would have risen to approximately £123,000 ($165,000).
Once FTSE 250 inclusion is achieved, the next destination is the FTSE 100.
That currently requires a market cap of around £3.6 billion.
Again, it sounds like a huge leap.
But look at the bigger picture.
The next Bitcoin halving arrives in April 2028. By then, the Bitcoin Power Law suggests a fair value of around £186,000 ($250,000).
At that valuation, SWC would need roughly 19,400 BTC to support a £3.6 billion market cap based purely on its Bitcoin holdings.
Of course, this is a simplified model. It assumes no further dilution, Bitcoin tracking the centre line of the Power Law, and the market continuing to value SWC broadly in line with its Bitcoin treasury.
But what it does show is that
@asjwebley and the team's ambitions are not as far-fetched as some people think.
Personally, if preferred shares become part of the strategy, I can see a realistic path to the FTSE 100 before the end of the decade.
Do your own research.
But if you're bullish on Bitcoin long term, and you believe the predictions of $1 million Bitcoin eventually becoming reality, then perhaps these targets aren't as crazy as they first appear.
Not financial advice.
A good end to the week.
$SWC up 6.6% on the day.
6.5% up in Bitcoin terms.
6th Highest Riser for the day on the FTSE All-Share Index.
4th Highest Riser for the day on the FTSE Small Cap Index.
h/t
@Toffeebdm &
@andysmith_asap
Today rightly belonged to Space X.
Tomorrow may belong to more AI plays.
But there will be a day where capital looks elsewhere for a home.
Players are positioning as we speak.
Capital will continue finding its way into Bitcoin.
Via Digital Credit products like STRC and SATA, via self storage Bitcoin, via ETFs and via leveraged / amplified plays like MSTR, ASST and SWC.
There will always be short term plays and noise but the lower time preference the clearer the long term opportunity Bitcoin and amplified Bitcoin opportunities appear.
Keep an eye out for
@TimKotzman’s latest pod with
@asjwebley and
@Croesus_BTC on X to be released today.
Have a great weekend all!
Onwards! 🚀