Ok, so here's my quick take on
$BRBR after reading a couple of the recent calls.
The CEO current ceo basically built Premier Protein is cashing out and retiring. I don't blame her, this is probably the right timeto exit. Best i can tell, she rode the RTD protein wave when it was still greenfield, and built a category leader.
The problem is the category, has now been proven out, and is maturing fast. When this happens, tons of competition steps in, and heavy promotions are everywhere. competing this in this type of environment is a very different game and requires a different skillset to navigate.
IMHO the game now is to defend a high-volume, promotion-heavy business with limited pricing power on a crowded shelf. The problem is each point competition gains crushes BRBR's margin. So it becomes a long term game of survival, which ultimately is a test of operating efficiency, brand loyalty, balance sheet durability etc... it's a big multi-vector stress test for management.
If I owned 100% of this company, I'd be pivoting hard into cash-cow mode. I'd do what i can to defend the Premier moat, harvest cash flow, pay down debt, and return as much capital as possible to stakeholders. I would not chase questionable "growth" in a maturing space, or squander resources on new product development or acquisitions.
Which bring us to my big problem: odds are high they will hire a new CEO who will be highly incentivized to deliver growth.
He/she will very likely be hired based on overpromising his/her abilities -- followed by lots of risky bets to deliver on those fantasies. This will likely be a disaster.
As for current management? the fact they basically gave up on PowerBar in North America is a red flag. That's a strong brand, it should have been fairly easy to reformulate, or build something with it, yet they didn't / couldn't. again they succeeded in low competition greenfield. then again maybe they just became hyper focused? idk.
That said, valuation is cheap and the announcement of a new CEO will probably spark a short-term pop. I also suspect any sector rotation could create new demand for the shares. This could be a decent trade if multiples re-rate to 10-12x on inflows.
This is not a situation i'd want to own long term, and certainly not in size. Realize, at the end of the day, you're making a bet on a single product in a single format: RTD.