The Netherlands have played in three World Cup finals. They've lost every single one. A German economist named Joachim Klement, who has correctly predicted the last three World Cup winners using a mathematical model, just picked them to finally win in 2026.
Klement holds a master's in mathematics from ETH Zurich, one of Europe's top engineering schools, and works in finance in London. In 2014, he built the model as a deliberate exercise to prove that economics couldn't forecast football any better than chance. Germany won anyway. France followed in 2018, then Argentina in Qatar in 2022. Three-for-three.
The model is based on a 2002 University of Nottingham study on what actually drives international football success. The core inputs are GDP per capita (richer countries build better football academies), total population (more people, deeper talent pool), and average temperature. The model's sweet spot is 14 degrees Celsius for year-round outdoor play, which is partly why Spain, France, and Argentina have dominated for decades. Add current FIFA rankings and a bonus for the host nation, and you have a system that reads football success as an economic output.
With 32 teams in each of those tournaments, the odds of picking correctly at random were 3% per event. Three in a row by pure chance: 0.003%. Klement says about half of any match comes down to luck. For 2026, his model picks the Netherlands to beat France, Spain, and Portugal on the way to a first title.
The Dutch have never won it. Three finals, each one lost. In 1974 in Munich, Johan Cruyff's Netherlands took an early lead against West Germany and still lost 2-1. They went back in 1978 without Cruyff and lost to Argentina 3-1 in extra time. In 2010, Andres Iniesta's goal in the 116th minute gave Spain a 1-0 win in Johannesburg. The Dutch hold the record for most World Cup final appearances without ever winning.
Their first game is tomorrow, against Japan in Dallas. If the model holds, 52 years of near-misses end in New York on July 19.
The Mathematician who has correctly predicted winners of the last 3 World Cups has just made his predictions for this World Cup
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