The implied volatility on those $SPCX options that open for trading tomorrow are going to be insane

大家可能低估了 Serenity 这篇推文的含金量 Serenity 说：如果一年要把 10 万美元变成 100 万美元，他会选 $XLU 的 OTM 2 年期 LEAPs $XLU 是美国公用事业板块 ETF，主要持仓电力、燃气公司，是最直接暴露美国电网和发电能力的工具 美国电力已经成了 AI 竞赛的最大瓶颈， AI 数据中心需求爆炸，但美国本土电力严重不足.... 巨头们非常迫切，必须想尽办法快速解决电力问题。他们一方面在美国加速建设 behind-the-meter 天然气发电厂，另一方面也在海外其他国家建数据中心和电力项目来分担压力 ➤OpenAI Stargate 项目：计划投入 5000 亿美元，目标建 10GW AI 数据中心容量 ➤Meta：路易斯安那大项目投资超百亿美元，可扩展到 5GW 算力 ➤Amazon：宾州投入超 200 亿美元建核电直接供电的 AI 数据中心园区 ➤Microsoft：160 亿美元重启 Three Mile Island 核电站，835MW 电力专供 AI 数据中心 ➤Google：47.5 亿美元收购能源开发商，直接掌控可再生能源资产给数据中心用 ➤Oracle：计划建吉瓦级数据中心，用 SMR 小型核反应堆直接供电 最有钱的几家公司正在把数百亿甚至数千亿美元砸进电力和数据中心，就因为电力已经成了决定性瓶颈 再看回 Serenity @aleabitoreddit 的观点 AI 电力需求暴增，必须大规模新增可靠发电和电网升级。2026 年正好碰到降息周期，这些因素叠加在一起，让电力相关板块成为一个值得关注的暴露方式 数据就在这里，真实发生的资本支出摆着。到底是不是历史性机会，时间会给出答案🧐

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If I had to turn $100k -> $1M in 1 year. It would be: $XLU OTM 2 year leaps 2026 is the first time in modern history markets have: - falling interest rates - AI inference buildout There's a potential ~40% for XLU (1000% OTM), from mapping. Here's my macro thesis: 1. Rate Cuts When the Fed cuts rates without a recession, utility debt becomes cheaper, and institutional rotates low-yielding cash to for utility dividends. This causes immediate valuation multiple expansion: 1995: The S&P Utilities sector returned 31.3% in 1995 and another 12.1% in 1996 - ~47% cumulative return 2019 Mid-Cycle Cut: Result: XLU generated a 25.9% total return in that single year Standard soft-landing rate-cut cycle naturally maps to a 25% to 30% baseline return. And we're entering a new rate cut cycle in 2026. 2. The Infrastructure Supercycle Capex Infra CapEx gives the sector compounding earnings growth. Following the early 2000s, utilities entered a massive CapEx cycle to modernize aging grid infrastructure. Because they were constantly spending and expanding their guaranteed rate base, XLU returned 23.5% in 2004, 16.3% in 2005, 20.8% in 2006, and 18.4% in 2007. However this time: The $800B AI buildout of 2026 makes the 2004 grid modernization look like pennies. So you have Valuation Multiple Expansion ( 15% to 20%), from rate cuts from #1. EPS growth ( 18% to 20%) from #2 from capex spend historically. Just from a history lesson. But 2026 is the most unique moment in history from AI usage. Just from my own model projections as all former estimates are likely wrong from extreme AI ramp (eg. DOE/LBNL projections): Hyperscaler CapEx Inflows (Spend) - (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Oracle) into DCs est: 2024: $220 Billion 2025: $350 Billion 2026: $550 Billion 2027: $800 Billion 2028: $1.2 Trillion (Growth: 445% over 4 years) U.S. Data Center Power Usage: 2024: 190 TWh 2025: 280 TWh 2026: 430 TWh 2027: 650 TWh 2028: 980 TWh (Growth: 415% over 4 years) % of Total U.S. Electricity Consumed by AI: 2024: 4.5% of the U.S. grid 2025: 6.6% 2026: 8.2-10.2% 2027: 13.4-15.4% 2028: 21.3-23.3% Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Department of Energy seem off by AI usage (they're projecting ~12% by 2028) Physical Grid Capacity Demand: 2024: 18 GW 2025: 35 GW 2026: 65 GW 2027: 105 GW 2028: 160 GW Basically you can just see 2026 into 2028 being the inflection point whereas 2024-2025 where slower years on the ramp up. Then there's the "Desperation Premium" for independent companies. Because grid capacity is sold out, tech giants are paying massive premiums to utilities to cut the line. eg. PJM Interconnection (Virginia "Data Center Alley"), capacity prices spiked from $28.92 per MW-day in 2024 to an unfathomable $329.17 per MW-day for 2026/2027. $VST or Constellation are a large weighting in the ETF as independent power producers. Across the board, you can see the extreme ramp from 2026 (now) into 2028 compared to previous years, alongside extreme capex going into building the infrastructure. 2026 is the first time in modern market history that every single thing is firing at the same time for the boring grid/power sector with AI as the biggest tailwind. And as Elon quotes it: "Billions of dollars of the most advanced hardware. Sitting dark. Not because the chips won't work. Because there's not enough electricity to run on them". Again 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly due to AI and MMs have priced in historical IV (extremely flat ~14%-16%) for OTM calls. We're seeing an explosion in AI inference (beyond previous measurements) as well as training (per OpenAI report today). So the most boring sector on earth (power/grid), might just be the start of a major rally due to hyperscaler/gov spend into grid improvements -> extreme power consumption from AI inference/training -> rate cuts and others. This is just my personal thesis, options come with risk and magnifies downside too. These are also my own projections, no certainty if they will exceed or be lower than them. But basically: 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly. New bottleneck in the US is power. There's extreme demand from AI, extreme capex, rate cuts: $XLU looks like the best trade for exposure. Time will tell if this is right or not.

Listen. I’m genuinely fascinated by this whole thing. Is the regular season now the preseason? Like we are just watching 82 to kill time?

ATP sportsmanship of the year award winners from 2004-2017; 2004 Federer 2005 Federer 2006 Federer 2007 Federer 2008 Federer 2009 Federer 2010 Nadal 2011 Federer 2012 Federer 2013 Federer 2014 Federer 2015 Federer 2016 Federer 2017 Federer It seems legit?

Bleacher Report ranks the Clippers as the 3rd best trade destination for Anthony Davis 👀 Their proposed package: Wizards Receive: Terance Mann, Bogdan Bogdanović, Brook Lopez, Nicolas Batum, 2027 first-round pick (via NYK), 2030 first-round pick (via LAC; top-14 protected), 2029 second-round pick (DAL via BKN) Nets Receive: Derrick Jones Jr., Bradley Beal Clippers Receive: Anthony Davis Thoughts? 🤔