The Kremlin is broke: it has put much of the economy on a wartime footing with civilian production suffering. It raised taxes and wants to borrow more, but Nabiullina has kept interest rates high because she is very worried about inflation (and so is the Kremlin, because real inflation would instantly end the fiction of the war as a successful special military operation that does not touch ordinary Russians, something Putin promised back in 2022).
They lowered the rate a bit, but businesses are suffering and internal debt has soared anyway. The Kremlin can confiscate the savings held in banks but so far has not done so.
So how do you finance a ruinous war while appearing to keep the books?
You have the Finance Ministry sell government bonds to the banks, which cannot say no to the Kremlin, even though those bonds are backed by nothing but a tax base the war keeps shrinking and vague promises to repay unclear from exactly what magical assets or investments (especially if the war ends and military production craters).
Then you take that money and hand it to regional governments as “zero-interest loans,” which show up on your books as credits rather than spending — never mind that everyone knows the regions will never repay a ruble, so they are grants in everything but name. The regions spend it on the war.
It is money printing the long way around, relabeled as prudent accounting.
Prices will rise.
And people will react with the familiar sequence: doubts in the value of the ruble, which make contracts uncertain and difficult to write in anything but the very short term, people buying physical objects because cash value is in doubt, no savings but immediate spending for same reason, which means accelerated inflation, prices failing to reflect market realities and so ceasing to function as signals to firms, which means further misallocation of resources, and so on.
Unchecked, you end up with hyperinflation and financial collapse. Nabiullina has been keeping her finger in the hole of that dam wall and has had the Kremlin firmly behind her.
But she’s come under increasing pressure and we have seen some cracks starting to show: after all Putin does not like the business discontent bubbling up through occasional outbursts in the Duma.
The whole well camouflaged scheme does not sound like something the Kremlin can sustain indefinitely, no matter how pretty they make the accounting books look (while hiding the true cost of the war deliberately by keeping the spending secret).
Russia’s State Duma passed in emergency procedure a bill that allows the government to raise budget spending above the planned 44 trillion rubles without formal changes and without disclosing extra costs, including on the army. The measure suspends limits on internal debt growth so the Finance Ministry can borrow as much as needed. It also lets regions restructure debts, receive zero-interest loans and spend more on the special military operation. Authorities say the changes are urgent to prevent a budget crisis.