๐ Japan Eyes Greenland's Rare Earths: The Promise, the Politics & the Permafrost Problem
brusselsmorning.com/greenlanโฆ
๐งฒ JAPAN'S RARE EARTH NIGHTMARE
Japan is one of the world's largest consumers of rare earth magnets and it remains dangerously exposed to China. Despite fifteen years of diversification after the 2010 rare earth shock โ when China weaponised REE exports after a fishing boat incident near the Senkaku Islands โ Japan's dependence on China for rare earths has only crept back up, reaching 63% in 2024 and jumping to 76% in January 2026 as alternative supply dried up.
Since late 2025, China has completely cut Japan off from dysprosium, terbium and yttrium oxide for over four months โ not a slowdown, an actual halt โ triggered by tensions over Taiwan and Prime Minister Takaichi's comments about a possible contingency.
Japan has stockpiles and Lynas supplies โ but Lynas produced just 8 metric tonnes of Dy/Tb in Q1 2026, while China was exporting approximately 14 tonnes per month to Japan in 2024 alone. The gap is real. The panic is real. And now Tokyo is looking north โ to the world's largest island, covered in ice.
๐๏ธ Japan Plans a Delegation to Greenland โ Here's Why It's Both Exciting AND Complicated
Tokyo is preparing to send officials to Greenland to assess rare earth development opportunities โ part of a broader scramble by six nations now eyeing the Arctic island's mineral wealth.
On paper, the logic is obvious:
๐ Greenland holds 1.5 million tonnes of rare earth reserves โ ranked 8th in the world by the USGS
๐๏ธ The Gardar Province in southern Greenland is one of the most concentrated alkaline igneous REE belts on Earth
โ๏ธ The two most advanced projects โ Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez โ would rank among the world's largest REE operations if they ever enter production
But here's the thing. None of this is easy. Not even close. ๐งต
1๏ธโฃ THE PROJECTS: DECADES IN THE MAKING โ AND STILL NOT THERE
๐ด Kvanefjeld โ The World's Third-Largest Land REE Deposit
Located near the town of Narsaq, Kvanefjeld holds over 11 million metric tonnes of reserves and resources including 370,000 tonnes of heavy rare earths โ one of the richest HREE deposits on Earth.
It was originally licensed to Energy Transition Minerals (ASX: ETM) โ formerly Greenland Minerals โ over a decade ago. The project was ready for final approval in 2021 when Greenland held a snap election. The Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) party won on a single-issue anti-Kvanefjeld platform, and within months passed Parliament Act No. 20 of December 2021 โ the Uranium Act โ banning mining from any site where average uranium content exceeds 100 ppm.
Kvanefjeld's ore? 360 ppm uranium. More than three times the legal threshold.
ETM's exploration licence lapsed in December 2025. In June 2026 Greenland's government issued a draft decision recommending the licence not be renewed โ saying further exploration "may no longer serve a purpose under the current legal framework."
ETM has launched a High Court challenge against the Greenland government. It accuses authorities of using the uranium law to block a rare earth project where uranium is merely a by-product. Separately, Greenland faces a potential US$11 billion damages claim โ nine times its annual budget โ if ETM wins its international arbitration.
This project has been tied up for 15 years and is still not resolved. That's the Kvanefjeld story.
๐ก Tanbreez โ The More Promising Path
Located near Qaqortoq in southern Greenland, Tanbreez is operated by Critical Metals Corp (Nasdaq: CRML) and represents arguably the most viable near-term REE project in Greenland.
Why? Unlike Kvanefjeld, Tanbreez's ore has lower uranium content, making it compatible with Greenland's current legal framework. It already holds an exploitation licence โ granted in 2020 for rare earths, zirconium, niobium, hafnium and tantalum.
2025/2026 drilling results are impressive:
1. 1.75km corridor of continuous REE mineralisation at Area B
2. 132m at 0.46% TREO Y; 128m at 0.43% TREO Y
3. 25โ27% heavy rare earth oxides as a proportion of total REE โ strategically valuable
4. Exploration target upgraded toward 500Mt of rare earth material (up from 225Mt)
5. Presence of gallium, hafnium, niobium, cerium, yttrium
In January 2026, Critical Metals approved construction of Arctic-grade pilot plant and storage facilities in Qaqortoq โ a major milestone. The CEO told Reuters the company expected to close remaining offtake agreements (the last ~25%) in Q1 2026 and is open to US Government investment.
But the mine start itself? Still targeting mid-2029 at the earliest โ and rated as having a low probability of moving forward as planned by project trackers.
Other Notable Projects on the Island:
๐บ๏ธ Kringlerne (Killavaat Alannguat) โ also in the Gardar Province, eudialyte-hosted REE in the Ilรญmaussaq intrusion; exploitation licence already granted
๐บ๏ธ Sarfartoq โ Neo Performance Materials (Toronto); NdPr-focused, 2,000 tpd ore processing, 6,500 tpa REE concentrate target; lower radioactive content, close to Kangerlussuaq infrastructure
๐บ๏ธ Motzfeldt Sรธ โ Igaliko nepheline syenite complex REE deposit, early stage
๐บ๏ธ Amitsoq Island โ graphite (not REE), exploitation licence granted December 2025 to GreenRoc Mining
2๏ธโฃ THE THREE REAL CHALLENGES (Wood Mackenzie's Verdict)
woodmac.com/news/opinion/thrโฆ
Wood Mackenzie's rare earth team has laid out the three walls Japan โ and everyone else โ will hit trying to develop Greenland's resources:
๐ง Challenge 1: Geography
Greenland's permanent ice cap covers most of the interior โ exploration is confined to coastal fringes. Even on the coast:
1. Freezing temperatures and high snowfall year-round
2. Limited winter daylight makes industrial operations brutal
3. Only ports in the southwest operate year-round; only Nuuk has modern infrastructure
4. Ports near southern deposits are not designed for commercial-scale export
5. Companies would need to build their own roads, energy infrastructure and housing โ and import a skilled labour force
The cost multiplier for all of this is enormous. CNBC cited analysts calling Greenland's REE development "completely bonkers" as a near-term supply chain fix. The CSIS has noted that "severe climate and high capital requirements...will be major limiting factors whoever runs the territory."
๐ฟ Challenge 2: ESG and Community Opposition
Greenland's mining politics are volatile. Narsaq residents near Kvanefjeld have consistently opposed the project, citing fears about radioactive dust and tailings contaminating their drinking water โ the town sits downhill from the deposit.
Greenland's Mineral Resource Strategy 2025โ2029 does recognise the need for international investment, but all projects must meet high ESG standards and community consent requirements.
No amount of geopolitical urgency will fast-track permitting for a project that local communities oppose.
โ๏ธ Challenge 3: Geopolitics โ Greenland Is a Contested Prize
This is the most complex challenge of all. Greenland sits between Europe, North America, Russia and the Arctic shipping lanes.
1. President Trump has repeatedly pushed for US control of Greenland โ citing rare earths, Arctic shipping and defense
2. The EU has a Strategic Partnership with Greenland on raw materials, backed by the Critical Raw Materials Act
3. China holds a 6.5% stake in ETM (Kvanefjeld's licence holder), and has been linked to downstream processing discussions
4. Greenland itself has warned that Western hesitation could force it to seek Chinese development support
5. Japan now wants in too โ making this a six-nation scramble for a territory of 56,000 people
And yet: cooperation between the US and EU โ which would be needed to share financing and risk โ is under strain from Trump's trade war. The geopolitics that make Greenland valuable are the same geopolitics making it nearly impossible to develop in a coordinated way.
3๏ธโฃ SO WHY IS JAPAN GOING ANYWAY?
Because the alternative is worse.
China still supplies ~70โ76% of Japanโs rare earth imports and has halted heavy REEs (Dy, Tb, Y) entirely for four months during the latest Taiwan flareโup. Japanโs strategic stockpiles are classified and finite, and Lynasโ Dy/Tb output is only ~8 t/quarter, versus the roughly 14 t/month of heavy REEs Japan was importing from China in 2024.
So Tokyo is building a portfolio:
๐ฆ๐บ Lynas โ Extended JARE deal to 2038; 75% of all Lynas heavy REO output is now reserved for Japanese industry.
๐ซ๐ท CareMag / Carester (Lacq, France) โ JOGMEC Iwatani investing up to โฌ110m into a new HREE refining plant that will recycle 2,000 t/yr of magnets and process 5,000 t/yr of concentrates to produce around 600 t/yr Dy/Tb oxides and 800 t/yr NdPr. Startโup is expected late 2026, and Tokyo expects this single plant to cover ~20% of Japanโs future Dy/Tb demand.
๐ Southeast Asia โ Sojitz Lynas pushing new mine projects in Vietnam and Malaysia, plus expanded smelting in Malaysia by 2027; Sumitomo Metal Mining lifting scandium output ~20% from Philippine ore.
๐ Deepโsea nodules โ JOGMEC testing extraction of rare earthโrich sediments from Japanโs EEZ as a longโterm hedge.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ๐บ Tradingโhouse deals โ Sumitomo and Sojitz deals with MP Materials, Phoenix Tailings, Victory Metals, Ucore to secure light, heavy and finished REEs across the US and Australia.
Greenland is one more optionality play โ not a silver bullet. A Japanese delegation touring Tanbreez and Sarfartoq is basically a 2040 hedge, not a 2027 supply fix. Even Tanbreezโs optimistic timeline is 2029 , so the logic is simple: start the relationship now, secure a seat at the table, and be first in line when/if these Arctic tonnes finally move.
4๏ธโฃ And then thereโs eudialyteโฆ
๐กA lot of Greenlandโs โmonsterโ deposits (Kvanefjeld, Tanbreez, Kringlerne) are hosted in eudialyte, a complex silicate mineral.
โ๏ธWhen you hit it with acid, the silicate framework breaks down and reโforms as a thick yellow silica gel that clogs filters and traps the metals.
On paper, labs can get 80% REE recovery from eudialyte, but no one has yet run a big commercial plant without the gel turning into a metallurgical nightmare.
๐ Greenland has extraordinary rare earth potential โ and extraordinary barriers to realising it. The world's largest island is simultaneously the most coveted and most complicated mining frontier on the planet. But nobody should expect Greenland to rescue anyone from China dependence by 2030. The ice, the politics, the permitting and the price tag will see to that.
๐นVideo The race for Greenlandโs Mineral wealth | BBC News
๐ผ๏ธImage One ๐ด Kvanefjeld Project โ The World's Third-Largest Land REE Deposit
๐ผ๏ธImage Two ๐ก Tanbreez Project โ The More Promising Path
๐ผ๏ธImage Three ๐ฌ๐ฑ Southern Greenland fjord country
Greenland, Rare Earths, and Arctic Security PDF
csis.org/analysis/greenland-โฆ
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