I do not believe—and never have—that a European-style revolution is possible in Muscovy: one for freedom, for rights, for liberties, for honor. As has happened many times with us.
The historical experience of Muscovy is turmoil, bloody criminal uprisings, and a long history of palace coups.
Tsars and general secretaries were strangled with scarves, had their heads smashed with snuffboxes, were shot in basements, or left to die for days in pools of their own filth.
When today yet another pro-war “Z” correspondent or a propagandist who until recently was fully loyal to the Kremlin hurls insults at Putin, he is expressing the general mood of that environment—the environment of yesterday’s loyalists.
They despise and hate the tsar, see him as responsible for a pathetic failure—a weakling, a fool, an idiot. And this feeling of contempt becomes so strong that it outweighs fear. This is an important stage on the road to the “snuffbox.”
Discontent, quiet grumbling, even hatred among the entire population—from convicts to oligarchs—means little. But widespread contempt and the perception that the tsar is weak and foolish—that is something entirely different. That is already the groundwork for February 1917.
Still, one should not expect Putin’s fall anytime soon. And one should not hope that “good Russians” will come to power after him. Most likely, absolute hardliners with a Prigozhin-style vibe will take over. By the way, it’s hard not to recall that whole Prigozhin episode—it was a kind of prologue, a false start of the very process we are witnessing now.
But turmoil in Muscovy has always been our chance.
There will be turmoil.
P.S. In the photo — Ust-Luga, a key Baltic port for Russian oil exports, burned by Ukrainian drones.