Australia’s wettest week of spring is now behind us — and the next surge is already forming.
The 29 Oct – 5 Nov High-Energy Period delivered 250 mm peaks in northern NSW and widespread 50 mm falls through QLD, NT and WA’s far northwest.
Moisture is now locked in nationwide, setting the stage for the most active late-spring trough cycle of the year.
At the same time, early modelling trends are beginning to signal the first tropical feature of the 2025–26 wet season, with development potential emerging from early December across the northwest and adjacent Indian Ocean basin.
Model volatility remains high at this range, and early cyclone signals are often over-simulated by both deterministic and ensemble outputs.
Members are reminded to beware of cyclone commentary circulating on social media, as these are typically misunderstood and misleading.
For verified cyclone timelines and probability zones, refer to the December Long-Range Forecast attached within today’s update, which outlines expected tropical feature development dates, track summary and timelines.
Read our full breakdown of rainfall, temperature and storm risks for each district across the country.
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