And it leads to contradictory and self-contradictory analyses where both an outcome and its opposite are said to be brilliant strategery - not because they are, but because the point is to silence the critics.
So, just to sum up what we have so far:
This war was started by Israel, over Trump’s objections. But it’s also part of a Plan, you see. The fact that the military makes plans and has them on file somewhere means the top decision makers have a Plan.
You should trust the Plan. You should trust it even when Trump improvises, because he does that. You should especially trust it when people say it exists, even though no one can say what it is. Except when they can.
The Plan was to bring regime change to help the oppressed Iranian people, and also to leave the regime in place and make it our puppet. The Plan was also to send the Kurds in, and the Plan was not to send them in.
Since then, the Plan has been to use a phased air campaign to reduce Iranian capability, and has therefore attached high priority to Iranian ships in the Caspian. Iranian air defenses have been destroyed according to the Plan, but also can’t hit our F-35s, except maybe when they can - in any case, this is why we’re still using standoff munitions.
We are desperate to reopen the Strait and wish other nations would join in the Plan and help with that, but also there will be no more firing on ships in a few days as the Plan progresses.
But the Plan is actually to keep oil prices high, because this benefits US shale - this is why we don’t care if the Gulf explodes. The Plan is also to keep oil prices low by reducing Russia sanctions and not bombing Kharg Island, among other things.
Instead the Plan is to send a Marine Expeditionary Unit to Kharg Island where it and its logistics tail will be subject to considerable concentrated Iranian fire, to which it will be unable to effectively respond. This is so that we can take the island hostage and hold it as part of a negotiating strategy to reopen the Strait.
We do not, however, want to reopen the Strait, because leaving it closed hurts Europe. The Plan is therefore to reopen and not reopen the Strait.
Furthermore, the Plan is to cut off China’s oil by allowing China-bound Iranian oil tankers through. This is because shooting at them would raise oil prices, which is both part of the Plan and also not (see above).
The Plan is for the war to be over in a few weeks though, well in time for the midterms, by which time oil will be lower (despite refineries having been shot to hell), which is part of the Plan, except when it isn’t.
However, the Plan may require an invasion in the coming weeks…