Romeo Stevens' post presents a fictional narrative of AI reaching superintelligence by 2032, with a leading lab achieving superhuman coding milestones branching into fast and slow takeoff scenarios.
- Coding benchmarks accelerate from 8-month doubling in 2030 to monthly by late 2032, hitting 1-year 90% reliability threshold.
- Branch 1 involves fast takeoff with brain-like algorithms enabling near-instant self-amplifying recursion.
- Branch 2 features slow takeoff via online learning bound to deployment data, with SuperCoder-1 showing median research taste.
- Leading AI company deploys 400M H100-equivalents, allocating 20M to internal R&D in 2032.
- China expands industrial robots from over 2 million in 2024 worth $40B to 200 million worth $400B by 2032, producing 100 million yearly.
- AI contributes to 50% of 2024-economy tasks by 2032, raising US unemployment to 10% and reducing labour participation to 55%.
The narrative, written as a 3-day side project, examines differing geopolitical paths where the US loses AI control in one scenario while China retains it in the other.
Who wants more AGI scenarios?
I do! My colleague
@romeovdean spent three days as a side-project writing up an "AI 2032" scenario. There's also some nice meta-discussion of the writing process and what he learned from it.