Beg to differ.
Most of my audience has seen where this is going for a while.
- Human intellectual obsolescence. People are just transitioning from "intellectual exercise" to "visceral reality"
- Missing the forest for the trees. It's less about a vibe-coding tool and more about the ontology of being human, sapient, in a world where this is less of a moat.
- Plenty of people, from Yudkowsky to Hinton, have been talking about this for a while now.
There are many immanently knowable first, second, and third order consequences. Sure, "flawless reasoning chains" are not all there is, but we do have base rates for a lot of what's going on.
This is the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which implies that three have previously occurred. We know from history that this creates a "forward dislocation" of work, and that, over time, human labor has ascended from extraction to manufacturing to knowledge. The question is "whether or not knowledge work is the last bastion of human labor?"
The answer is unequivocally "no" - there are two primary axes of human labor that have nothing intrinsically to do with knowledge (though knowledge is a big component).
The first is the meaning/attention/experience/authenticity axis, which is that humans value humans because human nervous systems are optimized for human interaction. Sure, if we end up with a Westworld type environment, where robots are "supernormalized" in the way that porn and videogames are, then every human will prefer to interact with algorithmically optimized robots.
The second axis is statutory. Jobs and tasks that require humans because human laws say so. Now of course that's not really a very deep moat because human institutions are infinitely plastic. Some people are arguing that we should keep "humans in the loop for liability reasons" but that's literally Barney Stinson's job of PLEASE ("Provide Legal Exculpation and Sign Everything")
But I get it, appealing to ignorance is safe, easy, quick, and performs intellectual humility.
So yes, you are falling behind, but so is everyone else.
I can guarantee you that nobody at all is keeping up with the implications of AI and its major uses, even the people who are relatively up-to-date on the latest AI models themselves. Everyone is figuring it out as they go