$IREN: Market Dynamics and GPU Pricing
These concepts together were pretty important for me to visualize Neocloud market dynamics so I will aggregate and expand on ideas from various people. Original post from
@MarkosAAIG's post (1). Strong contributions from
@pepe_maltese (2). Important points on short term deviations from long term dynamics from
@FransBakker9812 (3). Observation on higher GPU prices from
@Umbisam (4).
Who's the Supplier to Whom?
Although Nvidia is physically supplying GPUs to IREN via Dell, intellectual property wise, everyone is a supplier for Nvidia. Nvidia defines the specifications for the rack, cooling, and more or less the datacenter. Nvidia defines more of the roadmap for the AI than anyone else.
DRAM suppliers make HBM to meet Nvidia's memory controller's clock speeds, voltage, and signaling.
$CRDO tunes their retimers for Nvidia NVSwitches. AI platforms write all of their software on top of CUDA, cuDNN, NCCL, etc. IREN is actually the power DC operations supplier for GPUs.
How Nvidia Leverages It's Position
The battle is not Nvidia raising prices on Neoclouds but Nvidia taking margin share from Microsoft and upper software layer.
An example, although over simplified, would be Microsoft buys 100k Blackwells for $3/hr, now buys 50k Vera Rubins for $6/hr. The Vera Rubins have more than 2x more efficient token generation so Microsoft and the end consumer still sees savings per tokens. The big difference is that while Intel market cap stagnated despite CPU performance improvements, Nvidia on the other hand is in a more dominant position that allows it bear the fruits of it's engineering.
Nvidia's Dominant Position
Obvious to most but its worth re-iterating that Nvidia is not just GPUs. Nvidia owns a large part of the networking hardware with their acquisition of Mellanox which became their BlueField DPUs and InfiniBand scale out networking. Nvidia has developed scale up networking in house with NVLink and NVSwitch. All the networking gear run software from Nvidia's acquisition of Cumulus Networks. NCCL is the networking library that coordinates all of Nvidia networking portfolio at a AI infrastructure level.
Nvidia acquired Bright Computing for GPU cluster orchestration in 2022. Although no where near as successful as their networking stack, Nvidia is trying again with talks to acquire AI21, an Israel based Neocloud (5). Nvidia acquired RunAI for GPU scheduling in 2024 but is pending jurisdiction and. Nvidia acquired Deci for model optimization in 2024 as well.
Nvidia has also acquired SwiftStack for storage integration and Omniverse for simulation. Nvidia routinely publishes frontier research for models and robotics to expand it's TAM but underneath the research is the the software libraries that expand it's moat.
Nvidia vs Microsoft with Neoclouds Between
Microsoft already blinked on their AI buildout in 2025 and OpenAI and potentially other customers just went to
$ORCL,
$CRWV. To catch up Microsoft went to
$NBIS,
$IREN.
Once
$CRWV runs out ability to dump supply on the market as Nvidia's designated commoditization beachhead, Neoclouds will raise prices because eventually the price of the GPU is just the aggregate of the depreciation residual values minus a financing and operational premium. Nvidia cannot indefinitely sell GPUs above their lifetime value.
Contrary to popular belief, ORCL is not dumping on the market and is getting 13.3m/MW-yr for IaaS (6) compared to 11.6m/MW-yr for NBIS and 9.7m/MW-yr for IREN. I expect IREN to improve their topline as 9.7m/MW-yr was not just anchor tenant pricing for Childress site but anchor tenant for the whole company.
If anything higher GPU prices show up as both higher cost and higher topline revenue for Neoclouds. Suppose fixed operational margins, higher topline is good. High cost is higher risk which will be embedded in top line as risk premium or derived from less new Neoclouds being able to afford the capital risk.
Neoclouds are Essential
Just as DRAM is an essential component, powered DCs are essential to Nvidia as they are a bottleneck for where Nvidia's customers can deploy their GPUs which is in turn a bottleneck for Nvidia's sales. From a market perspective, Neoclouds are essential for Nvidia as negotiation leverage against the hyperscalers.
Although Nvidia would like to minimize Neocloud margins, it's imperative for Nvidia to keep the industry alive.
Like any supplier industry, there is additional margin from differentiation. HS, IREN, NBIS all have good uptime, from Frans research, IREN is expecting 99.99% uptime. Differentiation will be operational and cost structure. Grid connected power has the best cost structure and best time to power which has differentiating value. With MSFT contract and H1-4 buildout, now IREN has credibilty and certainty behind it's timelines which will be a differentiator with higher GPU prices upping the stakes.
MSFT and hyperscalers will sign IaaS contracts with
$IREN because they need time to power and can benefit from pass through advantages of IREN's grid connected capex cost structure. Although BTM gas turbines are becoming popular,
@ShanuMathew93 talks about their higher cost structure here: (8).
@ShanuMathew93 has good insights on value of grid connected power in the important details of Google's Intersect acquisition: (7).
Light at the End of the Drawdown
From above you can see that powered DCs are just as essential as DRAM to GPUs and AI. All the doubt that
@hkuppy and
@RealJimChanos have counter balancing forces.
@pepe_maltese says it more eloquently than I can so I will just quote him: "The market will stop punishing capex when it can underwrite utilization, price pass-through, and funding certainly in next deal."
For those fearing dilution,
@pepe_maltese insightfully says "The market cap isn't the covenant. Credit is underwritten on assets contracts, not the spot share price. If H5-10 is staged with committed offtake, leverage can rise without "dstroying the capital base. If it's speculative MW, even a higher stock price won't save it."
@pepe_maltese's experience in the credit market clearly shows when he writes to not "anchor on D/E like IREN is an asset-light software co. For infra, lenders mostly underwrite collateral contracted cashflows ( DSCR/LTV, coverage)".
At these prices IREN may have to look at JVs or regular debt but there will be a way to fund H5-10, SW1, Oklahoma as long as money is funneling from the top at the frontier lab, hyperscaler level. I don't think IREN will do colocation but some form of GPU leasing is possible.
Colocation vs CSP
Power is T3 supply, DC is T2 supply, GPU operations is T1 supply. Colocation is T3 T2 supply. CSP is T3 T2 T1 supply. Having more of the stack is more capital risk but higher topline to capture margin from.
Nvidia holds the foundation layer of software but even the AI Cloud Platform can be seen as a supplier with zero distribution cost for Databricks/FireworksAI.
$NBIS is also trying to capture IaaS margins can have zero distribution cost once a software component is worth running on any cloud like Clickhouse.
I invest in
$IREN over
$NBIS because Nvidia is unlikely to assail the powered DC layer as hard as the software layer because powered DCs are hard assets with grid interconnects already entrenched while software is zero cost distribution with networking effects. The latter is moat worthy and margins are high but too intense of a battle with Databricks/FireworksAI as direct competitiors, Nvidia from below, and Frontier Labs/AI Natives/Software Enterprises from above, and X-factor commoditization like coding agents.