Many analysts a decade ago were seriously suggesting to the Tatas to exit the PV business. Nano had flopped. Branding was cab cars etc. But Tata stayed on. Today it is India’s #2 PV 4W maker (#3 if you count Kia-Hyundai together) though Mahindra, another solid Indian player, is right behind.
Through conglomerate cross-subsidising (yes through the same TCSs that people now mock) in a brutally competitive market they won share inch by inch against the Japanese, Koreans, Germans and Americans (OK ignore the Americans - they never had any real share.)
In EVs, TMPV is #1 and soon JLR/Cherry will be used to launch Avinya while Agratas battery launch is worked on with extremely heavy R&D in India and UK with some Chinese collaboration.
Of course, indigenisation happens one step a time and not at one go - and we don’t want autarky anyway. But we do want strategic autonomy and the brutal truth is almost everything is somewhat strategic today especially since everything is connected, computer on wheels/fridges/homes etc. And we want to exploit our scale - the same scale that our ancestor seers and modern reformers gave us.
It is very easy to comment from the sidelines but these houses are the “men in the arena”. A decade ago is also when Ambani revolutionised internet access for India and Adani’s rise in infra further accelerated. Today these houses are investing in nuclear, green energy, chemicals, autos - this is a clear vindication of India’s industrial policy.
Where partial course correction is required (QCO, BIT) it will happen. The Indian system is yes somewhat slow but it works, and over years and decades delivers strong cumulative and compounded results. Thank heavens we did not listen to unilateral free trade wallahs (including my earlier avatar till 10-15 years earlier) for that would have decimated India’s auto ecosystem.
Today entrepreneurship is as democratised as it has ever been in Indian history. Easiest to start a business in all of Indian history. India is as open to FDI investment as it has ever been - which is also why gross FDI is at all time records no matter how much it is confused with net FDI (net matters for BOP, gross matters for tech and best practises.)
Indian PE/VC ecosystem has never been more mature in history. All these exits that some complain about are the very reason much more inflows are coming in. If you have once made money in India, why not? They are badly stuck in China. But some genius critics are confused whether we want this money or not. Some mornings they do, by evenings they don’t.
Today Zomato and Swiggy have emerged as the true threats to Amazon in India even as Flipkart was sold off to Walmart. Look how deftly Indian policy handled the FDI inventory thing despite constant complaining by Americans and their proxies in our ecosystem. Again, quick commerce is a genuine innovation. Japan surged ahead on manufacturing but ultimately subscale intertia kept it inefficient in retail and domestic services. Today Korea and Taiwan are richer.
India will be a champion in manufacturing too. Currency, PLI, tax cuts, land parks, labour reforms, infrastructure buildout - all these are relatively recent reforms or changes punctuated by pandemics, tariffs and wars. It is coming.
Stay bullish on India. Constructive criticism is critical but constant generic whining in public does not suit an Arya mentality.