📈 Weekly Market Review & Outlook
This week saw a significant expansion in volatility. Early-week price action was driven by geopolitical uncertainty, CPI data, and liquidity positioning ahead of the SPCX listing, resulting in choppy and directionless trading conditions.
By Thursday afternoon, markets stabilized and reversed higher as geopolitical concerns eased. This aligned with Matt’s view that a short-term bottom was forming, creating several attractive long opportunities.
During the week, I began rebuilding positions that had previously been reduced. SPY found support around 721, while 744 acted as resistance before consolidating into Friday.
Sentiment improved into the weekend, supported by growing optimism around SPCX. Sunday evening saw strong risk-on flows, with ES and NQ gapping higher and SPY extending toward the 750 area.
Leadership remained concentrated in strong names such as MU, AMD, NBIS, MRVL, IREN, and SPCX. GOOGL also reclaimed its 4H 50MA after filling its gap, which I view as a constructive bullish signal.
Overall, I continue to see multiple leaders emerging from consolidation structures, suggesting potential continuation toward new highs.
🔹 Next Week Outlook
• Monday: Potential continuation of bullish momentum.
• Tuesday: Possible premium-killing/chop session.
• Wednesday–Thursday: Higher probability of volatility expansion; caution warranted.
🔹 Medium-Term View
I remain very bullish on the second half of 2026. While corrective pullbacks remain possible in August, the August–October period may offer attractive opportunities for sustained long exposure.
🔹 System Update
Over the weekend, I refined my quantitative framework for managing overnight options exposure. The updated process has increased my confidence in holding overnight risk, allowing position sizing to expand from under 5% previously to roughly 8–10% under defined conditions. Further validation through ongoing data collection remains essential.