Projecting seats from polls for the next Dáil election since 2021.
Joined September 2023
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For clarity: I won't be posting here anymore while this site is in its current state.
I am on bluesky under my personal name, where I post about polling and other stuff. You can find me there.
Updates and articles will continue on irishelectionprojections.com
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5,814
Irish Election Projections retweeted
30 Dec 2025
A not-so-brief summary of where we are at heading into the new year in terms of polling, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael trending down, an Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats trending up. Featuring analysis for every constituency, read below 👇
irishelectionprojections.com…
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Irish Election Projections retweeted
30 Dec 2025
Dáil Seat Projections for end of 2025:
Sinn Féin 43 ( 4)
Fianna Fáil 42 (-6)
Fine Gael 39 ( 1)
Independents 12 (-4)
Social Democrats 15 ( 4)
Labour 10 (-1)
Independent Ireland 6 ( 2)
PBP/Solidarity 3 (nc)
Aontú 3 ( 1)
Green Party 0 (-1)
100% Redress 1 (nc)
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30 Dec 2025
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29 Dec 2025
oh god
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30 Dec 2025
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30 Dec 2025
A not-so-brief summary of where we are at heading into the new year in terms of polling, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael trending down, an Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats trending up. Featuring analysis for every constituency, read below 👇
irishelectionprojections.com…
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6,721
30 Dec 2025
Dáil Seat Projections for end of 2025:
Sinn Féin 43 ( 4)
Fianna Fáil 42 (-6)
Fine Gael 39 ( 1)
Independents 12 (-4)
Social Democrats 15 ( 4)
Labour 10 (-1)
Independent Ireland 6 ( 2)
PBP/Solidarity 3 (nc)
Aontú 3 ( 1)
Green Party 0 (-1)
100% Redress 1 (nc)
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3,859
Irish Election Projections retweeted
24 Dec 2025
Wrap of 2025 with Simon McGarr (@Tupp_Ed) and @irishelectproj’s Harry McEvansoneya
Only listen if you like your optimistic commentary wrapped in cynical pessimism.
Listen: patreon.com/posts/patron-exc…
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16 Dec 2025
Ennis is going to be a strong candidate. One to watch.
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16 Dec 2025
Doesn't sound like much, if anything, new in the Fianna Fáil report. Doesn't make the issues go away, the whole situation is still what it is, but don't think this does much to change the trajectory the various parties have already decided to take
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Irish Election Projections retweeted
15 Dec 2025
New:
Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness (Carlow-Kilkenny) tells @drivetimerte that "there is a growing number of people in the Parliamentary Party that feel a change in leadership is needed [which] has to take place in the first quarter of next year".
This comes after three senior TDs (Willie O’Dea, Seán Ó Fearghaíl & Pat The Cope Gallagher) called for the immediate publication of the party’s report into the Presidential Election.
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9 Dec 2025
lol, lmao
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9 Dec 2025
Tracks with him being the type of guy to write newspaper columns about how he was being "silenced" because Simon Harris wouldn't force his councillors to nominate him for president
Questions for the papers about giving him a platform for that guff, still 🤔
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Irish Election Projections retweeted
7 Dec 2025
POLL/POBALBHREITH: Dáil Éireann
SF: 24% ( 1)
FG: 17% (-2)
FF: 20% ( 2)
SD: 8% (-1)
AON: 5% (-1)
LAB: 5%
INDIRL: 5%
PBP-S: 3%
GP: 2%
INDs & Others: 11% ( 1)
/- vs. Samhain/Nov 2025
Source: @Ireland_Thinks/@TheSundayIndo [D: DFómh/Oct, S: ~1,000]
#Ireland #Poll
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2 Dec 2025
Remember when we were all assured by certain politicians and analysts that Catherine Connolly was guaranteed to cause a major diplomatic incident if she was let within a kilometre of Zelenskyy? lol
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2 Dec 2025
As I said at the time, once Connolly was elected, all these outlandish and embarrassing claims would be forgotten because they were absolute fantasy, the role of the President is actually not very interesting, and Connolly is perfectly competent
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1 Dec 2025
Progress Ireland presenting polls saying people want more infrastructure is all well and good, but they appear to be pretending to have forgotten what the "M" in NIMBY stands for
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1 Dec 2025
You can demonstrate that people *in abstract* want something obviously good (better infrastructure) but these projects don't place in the abstract. Don't get observations submitted in abstract. Don't have JRs taken in abstract. It's all so disingenuous
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1 Dec 2025
"in the debate about many versus few we have identified that both many and few exist and will present this as some kind of insight" genuinely these lads are only taken seriously cos they're saying what the gov wants to hear (ie that its not the gov's fault for failing to deliver)
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