Last week, seasonally adjusted continuing claims reached 1,974,000. Will continuing claims be higher or lower in the coming weeks? I think they will be lower, and if I had to bet on Polymarket what seasonally-adjusted continuing claims will be in 3 weeks I would say 1,888,000. Last year, several factors impacted jobless claims around this time: Hurricane Beryl, healthcare cyberattacks, and a high number of auto retooling layoffs. This year, there are different challenges, including tariffs, auto production shutdowns due to a shortage of rare earth minerals, and a number of job cuts according to Challenger. Also, states like Michigan have expanded their unemployment benefits. I think these factors all affect jobless claims. Last week, the seasonal adjustment factor for continuing claims was 0.948, indicating that non-seasonally adjusted claims were expected to be around 95% of the average. This upcoming week, the seasonal adjustment factor will be 0.972, or 97% of the average. If we calculate the difference—0.972 - 0.948 = 0.024—then multiply by 100, we get a 2.4% expected increase in non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims for next week. The week of July 5th the seasonal adjustment factor is 1.031 for continuing claims. I predict that seasonally adjusted continuing claims might rise more over the next two weeks, approaching 2 million before starting to decline. If non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims reach 1,945,000 (about 74,000 more than the current level) for the week of July 5, similar to last year's impact from Hurricane Beryl (which is 3 weeks away), this would translate to seasonally adjusted continuing claims of around 1,887,000 (1,945,000 divided by 1.031 equals approximately 1,886,517) in three weeks. This number would be higher than last year's but would be a big drop from the current seasonally adjusted level of 1,974,000. Even if non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims hit 2,000,000 the week of July 5th that will still only put the seasonally-adjusted claims at 1,940,000.