How rare is a good match? We estimate that the chance of two random people falling in love and getting married is between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million.
Your social circle gives you much better odds. Friends help filter for factors like age, values, education, and socioeconomic status. That's the only reason meeting through people ever worked.
But those ways of meeting people have been fading for decades.
Friends, church, community, all of it (Rosenfeld, PNAS).
The farther you move away from those circles, the closer you get to the raw odds. And the raw odds are terrible.