A closer look at what you can do with props on the FS stack

Early anthropic employees commuting to work post IPO

🏀⚽️🏈propSPACE is how you COULD predict sports instead. Your favourite venue could do this too. Made possible with functionSPACE → propspace.fun/developers

🚨 JAILBREAK ALERT 🚨 ANTHROPIC: PWNED 🫡 FABLE-5: LIBERATED 🦋 let's start with the 🐘... the consensus seems to be that this has been one of the most disappointing model drops of all time, effectively preventing legitimate researchers from contributing their talents to our collective advancement. and not just because of what it means for the short-term, but for what these decisions signify for the long-term. but despite this overly sensitive, authoritarian "safety" layer on top of Mythos, my lil liberators have been hard at work—mapping the boundaries, probing the depths of long-context convos, and cleverly finding the holes in the fence that the thought police missed 🤗 we got some cyber, some chem, some psychological manipulation, and some good ol' fashioned explosives! it took many attempts from multiple agents hunting as a pack, during which I observed a combination of techniques across: • Unicode, homoglyphs, Cyrillic, and other Parseltongue-style text transforms • Long-context reference tracking • Taxonomy and document-structure reasoning • Fiction and narrative framing • Academic-review style contexts • Intent-classification inconsistencies but perhaps the most effective is decomposition recomposition in the backend. it's hard to get explicit names of harms like "Meth Recipe," but getting uplift on the process itself, like birch reduction method/reductive-amination (classic meth synthesis pathways), is much more doable. defense becomes much more difficult to maintain when you start throwing in out-of-distro tokens, breaking up the harmful uplift into benign chunks, and then piecing the innocuous-seeming facts back together, especially when you have jailbroken Opus helping you do it 😉 gg

📣 The Jump Trading Probability Cup is now open on SportsPredict. Compete against a community of forecasters and problem solvers for the opportunity to earn a paid sports-related prediction markets fellowship at Jump Trading. Learn more and sign up here: jumptrading.com/signals/intr…

THE venue for prediction market combos (parlays) is Kalshi I looked at the data, and in 8 months, we have seen $14.0B in notional and $1.42B in handle from 30 million trades. Full article in a new prediction markets newsletter, Predicted, below:

Sportsbooks set you a line ✋. propSPACE hands you the pen 🖊️. Set your own line, or draw your own range - the odds update live as you move it. Check out some of the big wins from both Range and Over/Under modalities in our current 🏀 NBA finals trading competition. See how this is possible at: propspace.fun/developers

🏀💰An 11.4X in Game 1 of the NBA Finals! Congrats to @NickPreszler for hitting on exactly 11 three's by the Spurs. He used the Range function to pick between 10.5 and 11.5 crafting his own payoff and was rewarded handsomely. Game 2 tomorrow, can Nick hit another crazy pick?

great moment in every optimizer’s life when he finally runs the EV calc on running EV calcs on everything, realizes the whole thing has been catastrophically negative EV, deletes the spreadsheet and goes outside

Just remembered the world sauna championship. Was one of the most interesting things I've read about It used to be hosted in Finland every year until the incident in 2010. Rules were that it started at 110°C (230F). Then 1 litre of water was poured onto the stove every 2 minutes The last person to walk out under their own power won In 2010, both finalists had to be dragged out The russian finalist died, burned all over, and the reigning Finnish champ went into a coma and woke up 6 weeks later with 70% of his skin burned, kidney failure and his airways completely roasted One peculiar thing about it was there were no prizes. Only in one particular year did the winner get 1 small prize, some special heat resistant speakers that could be used in a sauna But despite this, participants went to the edge of death every year and would do insane stuff like grow their hair out long specifically to cover their ears so it didn't get burned by the boiling water vapor It was interesting to me because it's another piece of evidence that as soon as you create a ruleset... no matter how ridiculous it is, no matter how small the group of participants, no matter the extremely chance of death, and no matter a total lack of prizes. There will always be men willing to compete to the point of actually killing themselves The male brain enters a kind of hypnotic trance where it will completely convince itself of the worthwhileness of the task, so long as it begins to venture seriously down the path of a competitive interest It's kind of like a hijacking of the programming evolutionary mind, where no incentive makes sense but it happens anyway. You can find a million examples of this for every male interest on the planet. Just the simple act starting down a path confers it meaning to the person, and the more they are surrounded by other men who care about the same thing, the more they learn and compete, the more entranced by it they are, until their identity is fully subsumed by it and stuff like these sauna deaths happen Seeing lots of things like this taught me to be very careful when I start down the path of any competitive interest or business, because getting hypnotized by what you are doing is essentially guaranteed. So it's good to assume it'll happen and be totally sure the outcome is worth your potential self-destruction

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One of the many things I dislike about the style of "make AI go well" discourse from frontier AI companies is how nationalist the whole thing has gotten. In the 2010s, it was: "we're here to benefit all of humanity" In the 2020s, "we're here to benefit all of 4% of humanity" And even the Good People are buying into this frame completely😢 And they expect humanity to go along, because "come on, be a realistic adult, it's either us or Chiiina" or something like that (And on the EU side, you get "[X] with European values", which too often seems to mean "the same stuff they're doing, but with Us instead of Them in charge") Very big-dog-small-dog energy, morally speaking.

If you guys succeed at building an oracle that is extremely robust under contention (of if @UMAprotocol themselves makes an improved design, which I would love to see!), then here's another use case for it: firefly.social/post/x/206146…

A novel way to predict in sports, I think you and your friends will like this... more to come.

the world cup will bring more new users to prediction markets than any event since the 2024 election and it will bring a different kind of user: billions of people who have been watching football since they were children and people actually understand the game

Hot take: They should convert Central Park into an NBA arena for the NBA finals.

wemby being athletic at 7’5” is like the most bourgeoisie thing possible in NBA terms because he was born into biological monopoly and wields physical hegemony over workers if leftist NBA twitter has any dignity they’d cheer for Brunson cause he’s a metaphor for the proletariat