Trader, Advisor, Merc | quant @perpsdotfun | ex @jump_ | @punk8762 | schizo arc | not financial advice
Joined July 2011
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16 Aug 2025
the artist that masters trade becomes a cult leader
the trader that masters art becomes a culture dealer
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Justin Alick retweeted
Jun 13
if you're a trillionaire you could actually run Martingale. like what are the odds you lose 40 times in a row
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great analysis @shaundadevens, really enjoyed the read.
I would argue that for hyperliquid itself HIP3 deployer competition might actually be a net negative in the short run because the larger play here is Hyperliquid vs CEXs for the high volumes equities, preIPO markets and commodities. Binance OKX Coinbase are aggressively going into those markets (see latest @ArrakisFinance piece) and are winning market share.
Of course you want to have a more diverse set of deployers long term to list all sorts of long tail markets, for these I agree the 500k HYPE stake is infeasible any time soon. When you talk to larger institutional hype holders, hurdle rates are > 7% which are currently infeasible to be satisfied.
Long tail deployers without proprietary distribution should imo merge their efforts and collaborate more vs compete. I like the model of @Perpsdotfun which pools a single hip3 stake for multiple subdeployers.
This together with lower listing fees could already do the trick to make economics work for more long tail markets.
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unironically, @Perpsdotfun fixes most of this
the deployer bottleneck isn't something HL overlooked. this is a team famous for game theory. the 500K bond, the auction costs, growth mode being boolean and roll-over-able forever... everything points to one intended outcome: a handful of large deployers winning short-tail RWAs fast, covering compliance and zero fragmentation on key pairs. that race had to be won quickly, and it was. requirements will loosen eventually (the docs say as much), but today, imho this is by design
the open question is the long tail, and the report explain why no one cracks it solo: ~$30M of HYPE locked, illiquid and slashable, with the best non-XYZ deployer earning ~4% on it and most earning under 1%. no single niche throws off enough fees to carry that
a collective deployer flips the equation. perps.fun is a launchpad on top of HIP-3: one stake, many partner teams launching markets through it. we let partners focus on what actually wins the long tail: the markets themselves and the distribution behind them. each partner owns one vertical, a geography, an asset class, a community it actually understands, and earns a share of the fees its markets generate. their only job is making that niche work, not defending $30M of bonded capital alone. markets that are uninvestable in isolation become viable the moment the fixed cost is shared.
short tail rewards concentration, long tail rewards aggregation. monolithic deployers won the first race. the second one is structurally ours.
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Jun 12
with regards to SPCX for me, the only way to win is not to play
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Jun 12
You get up 80 million dollars, any crypto degen asshole in the world knows what to do. You get a mansion on the palm with a 50-year roof, an indestructible souped up Lambo Urus and you put the rest into the system at 8 to 12 percent and you pay for your lifestyle. That’s your base. Get me? That’s your fortress of fucking solitude. That puts you, for the rest of your life, at a level of ‘Fuck You.’
Jun 12
I’ve wanted to tell this story for years. Never had the courage. Here it is.
I turned a presale allocation into $80 million on $OHM. Today I have $500k left.
In 2021, I got a presale allocation in OlympusDAO, then aped heavily myself on top of it. The allocation got me in the door. My own conviction made me go all in. Staked everything. Watched it compound daily. By the peak I was sitting on $80 million.
Then I started spending like the money printed itself.
Private jets to Dubai because commercial felt beneath me. $40k weekends in Monaco. A garage full of cars I drove twice. Watches I never wore. I tipped $5k at dinners just to feel something. Every purchase was a flex for an audience that didn’t care.
The casino was worse. High limit rooms in Vegas and Macau. I’d lose $2 million in a night and laugh it off because the portfolio would make it back by morning. Until it didn’t.
When $OHM unwound, I didn’t sell. I doubled down. Then I leveraged. 5x, then 10x, trying to trade my way back to the peak. Every liquidation felt like a personal insult, so I’d open a bigger position. I wasn’t trading anymore. I was gambling with a different interface.
$80 million became $20 million. $20 million became $4 million. I told myself $4 million was still life changing money. Then I levered that too.
$500k. That’s what’s left.
Here’s what I learned the expensive way:
Unrealized gains are not money. I never had $80 million. I had a number on a screen and the arrogance to believe it was permanent.
Getting in early is a gift. I treated it like a skill. The allocation didn’t make me a genius. It made me lucky. I confused the two for three years.
Lifestyle inflation is a leak you don’t notice until the ship is underwater. The jets and cars didn’t kill me. The identity did. I became someone who needed to spend to feel like a winner.
Leverage doesn’t get you back to even. It gets you to zero faster. Revenge trading is just grief with a chart open.
Nobody at the table in Monaco remembers my name.
I’ve carried this story alone for years. Too embarrassed to say it out loud. But $500k is more than most people will ever hold at once, and I’m done pretending the past didn’t happen. The next decade is about building slow and keeping what I make.
If you’re up big right now, screenshot this. You’ll need it.
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Jun 6
something tells me mythos will only end up making defi stronger
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Jun 5
i expect Saylor to skip the dividends on STRC, and buyback the STRC after it nukes, not financial advice
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you can tell what hand a man goons with by the asymmetry in his beard density
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Justin Alick retweeted
May 22
@eth_milano is a great event.
A few takeaways from our State of Derivatives panel — thanks @guid_eth for hosting a great discussion.
@Ostium : insights on our design and view of where derivatives are going.
@justinalick / @Perpsdotfun talked about permissionless perps real demand.
@hufhaus9 / @pear_protocol shared insights on pair trading as its own onchain primitive.
@defi_raven discussed prediction market making recurring volume beyond headline events.
From my side at @Ostium :
1. Market discovery matters. On some platforms, the same asset can appear through different contracts, and users don’t always know which one to trade. At Ostium, the experience is designed to make that choice clearer.
2. People don’t wake up wanting “a derivative.” They want to trade what’s happening in the world. That’s why RWAs are here to stay.
3. Ostium’s infrastructure works as a synced triad: onchain settlement, in-house oracle, and hedging/liquidity layer.
4. The next trading UX won’t just be humans clicking buttons. It’ll be agents, bots, APIs, SDKs, and better portfolio control.
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