It should be astonishing, though it’s not, that the American negotiators want to begin from the premise that Russia was right and that Ukraine is not sovereign. Accepting the lies of the aggressor isn’t just unethical, it’s also unstrategic. Agreeing with Russia that a war of aggression leads to the end of Ukrainian sovereignty is not just morally but factually wrong — it is a complete misreading of what happened these last three years, as Ukrainians won crucial battles, took back territory, and proved their existence by any conceivable metric. Any peace will have to begin from legal and political reality. For America at this point in the war to -help- Russia undo Ukrainian sovereignty is not just injustice but a provocation to a much broader war.
US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document. ⬇️
The Istanbul protocols emerged from Russia-Ukraine negotiations in March and April 2022 as Ukraine was still reeling from the initial Russian invasion and do not reflect the situation today.
The draft agreement included the following key provisions that would destroy Ukraine's ability to defend itself and prohibit any state from helping Ukraine do so:
▪️ Ukraine would have had to amend its constitution to remove the clause committing Ukraine to NATO membership, add Ukraine’s commitment to permanent neutrality; and make Russian an official language of Ukraine.
▪️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces were to be capped at 85,000 and restricted to 342 tanks, 519 artillery pieces, and missiles with ranges under 40 kilometers.
▪️ The provision to Ukraine of any foreign weapons including missiles of any type, armed forces, and formations was to be banned.
▪️ The US, the UK, China, France, and Russia were to guarantee Ukraine’s neutrality, but all parties were to have to agree on a response to any violation, giving Russia a veto over any action.
▪️ The guarantors were to commit to ending permanently all bilateral security agreements with Ukraine including those regarding the provision of military aid.
These demands, which Vladimir Putin has often reiterated, amount to complete Ukrainian capitulation, not a sustainable peace in the interests of the US or Europe, to say nothing of Ukraine.
Witkoff also stated that “deals only work… when they’re good for all the parties… that’s the pathway we’re on here.” Istanbul cannot be the basis for any such agreement.