Please take time to read this
The IMF just said the naira is still undervalued by 25.6%. Let me break this down with actual mathematics so nobody can tell you this is opinion.
The IMF says based on Nigeriaโs economic fundamentals, the naira should be trading at N1,131 to the dollar. The official rate today is N1,356 to the dollar. The difference is N225 per dollar. That is not a small gap, it is a 19.9% overcharge on every single dollar transaction happening in Nigeria right now.
Let me show you what that costs real people.
A Nigerian parent paying university fees abroad of $10,000 per year is paying N13,560,000 at todayโs rate. At the rate the IMF says the naira should be, that same $10,000 costs N11,310,000. That parent is losing N2,250,000 every year purely because the naira is still undervalued. That is capital that should be staying in a Nigerian household.
A business importing raw materials worth $50,000 per shipment is paying N67,800,000 at todayโs rate. At the correct fundamental rate it should cost N56,550,000. The business is absorbing an extra N11,250,000 per shipment that it did not earn and cannot recover except by raising prices on you, the Nigerian consumer. That cost does not disappear. It transfers.
Now look at the bigger picture.
Nigeriaโs total merchandise imports in 2024 were approximately $27 billion. At the current undervalued rate versus where the naira should be, that N225 gap per dollar means Nigerian importers collectively overpaid by roughly N6.075 trillion in a single year. That excess cost did not go to Nigerian workers or Nigerian businesses. It evaporated into exchange rate distortion while the CBN defended the rate with reserves instead of fixing the fundamentals.
Now this is the part that should make you angry.
The REER appreciated 32% in 2025. That sounds like progress. But the NEER, the actual exchange rate you see on your screen, depreciated by 5.2% in the same period. How do both happen at the same time? Because domestic inflation was running so hot that even a weakening naira looked stronger against equally weakening trading partner currencies. Nigeria did not get stronger. Everything got more expensive together and the statistics smoothed it over.
Tinubu floated the naira in 2023. Nigerians absorbed the devaluation shock. Petrol prices rose. Cost of living rose. Businesses collapsed. The promise was that the market would correct and the naira would find its true value. Three years later the IMF is saying the naira is still 25.6 percent below fair value. Nigerians paid the full price of the adjustment and received less than three quarters of the correction.
You were charged for a full surgery. The doctor only completed 74.4 percent of the operation. And he is asking for more time.