Turnout up. Remarkable for a by-election.

"It's time for the truth.....From 1970 to 2007, real wages went down by one third every ten years. Since then they flatlined." Real wages *grew* by a third between 1970 and 2007. Since then they flatlined. He'll fit in well.

First poll of the year. Questions courtesy of Michael O'Leary, Maria Steen, Luke O'Neill, Mark Little... independent.ie/irish-news/13…

All three statements are true at the same time—

My latest fit the Sunday Indo. m.independent.ie/opinion/ana…

How did FF & FG maintain support in 2024 election despite costs of governing? What role did immigration play in voting behaviour? Full analysis in Ch 10 @kevcunningham @jelkink of How Ireland Voted 2024. tcd.ie/Political_Science/abo…

Based on their 2024 manifestos, how do the Irish parties line up on the left–right spectrum? Full analysis (and some amazing graphics) in Ch 5 of How Ireland Voted 2024. tcd.ie/Political_Science/abo…

Are demographics playing a stronger role in determining Irish voting than in past? Which has greater effect on voting behaviour, class or age? Full analysis in Ch 10 @kevcunningham of How Ireland Voted 2024. tcd.ie/Political_Science/abo…

How was government put together in wake of 2024 Ireland election? Full analysis in Ch 12 @anmailleach of How Ireland Voted 2024. tcd.ie/Political_Science/abo…

🎓 At the Annual Autumn Academy, the political context of countries are delved into based on the #NextLeft Country Case studies. Read them here! #FEPSAAA 📚 bit.ly/3ZW7DuW 🇱🇺Luxemburg 🔺Marc Angel, S&D MEP and EP Quaestor 🔺Paul Klensch @klenschpaul, City Councilor, Strassen 🔺Oliver Cano, Secretary for International LSAP 🔺@MatteoDressler, FEPS Policy Analyst on Democracy and Participation 🇮🇪Ireland 🟢@kevcunningham, lecturer in politics, political strategist, and pollster 🟢@davekitching, Secretary for International, @labour 🟢Aoife Maguire @aoife_oiney, FEPS Communications Officer 🇪🇪Estonia 🔹Eduard Odinets @OdinetsEduard, former MP Estonia, Secretary for International SDE 🔹Anneli Pärlin, Board member of the Estonian SDE, Maris Sild, City Councillor, Tallinn 🔹Riina Sikut, former Minister of Health, Estonia 🔹Tarvo Sarmet, FEPS Trainer 🔹@Ania_Skrzypek, FEPS Director for Research and Training

Which party strategies were successful at 2024 Ireland election, and which ones weren’t? Full analysis in Ch 6 of How Ireland Voted 2024. tcd.ie/Political_Science/abo…

How Ireland Voted 2024 now available (in full colour printing) from all good bookshops and probably some not so good ones too. Full of outstanding analysis and fascinating facts. 26 contributors, 13 chapters, 6 Appendices, 33 Tables, 41 Figures, 19 pages of great photos.

World's strongest thread discovered

COMING UP ➡️Would you use a digital document wallet? @ReginaDo ➡️Left or Right - why do we have to pick a political side? @kevcunningham @graham_finlay ➡️Will bird flu impact Christmas? @amyforde6 ➡️What to expect from COP30 @JessicaWoodlock ➡️How to break bad news @tierneysimon

Catherine Connolly won highest % of electorate (25.3%) since Erskine Childers in 1973, was clear choice of electorate. But perhaps also generated more unease, in some cases even antipathy, among electorate than most previous winners. Could well be an interesting presidency.

Polling this month highlights a number of challenges for the Taoiseach: - Drop in personal popularity - Decline in gov approval - Popular alternative in Jim O'C - Rising prominence of housing/cost of living/immigration - Popular president with mandate to critique gov - Credibility of left alternative - Energised spoiled voters... m.independent.ie/irish-news/…

Thanks Gerard. Very kind!

A good question from a good pal concerned the plausibility of Maria Steen's dominance among the desired candidates. What's interesting is that on polling day almost as many people were googling 'Maria Steen' as were googling 'Heather Humphreys'.

Up next.