About the weekend ...
What we do know:
✅Snow in the region
✅Travel impacts in the region
✅Even colder temps
What remains at least somewhat in flux:
❌Exact storm track (largely determines snow)
❌Snowfall amounts (possibilities remain wide)
#kswx#mowx
ALT Aside from post text, graphic shows a broad path for the expected storm system late this weekend. Highlights some of the uncertainty that remains as well as what we currently known. Also points out a few things you can do, including staying up to date to forecasts, prepare winter travel kits if traveling, and consider alternate plans if possible.
A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon but otherwise mild. More organized showers/storm are forecast this evening into Friday. A few isolated low-end severe storms possible with hail to around quarter size and wind gusts around 60 MPH. #kswx#mowx
ALT A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon but otherwise mild. More organized showers/storm are forecast this evening into Friday. A few isolated low-end severe storms possible with hail to around quarter size and wind gusts around 60 MPH.
On the right hand side is the Severe Convective Outlook for Day 1 from the SPC, issued at 06z. A large portion of the area is in a level 1 marginal risk.
Hot and humid conditions expected this afternoon and Sunday. A Heat Advisory his been issued for the entire area Sunday. Afternoon heat indices are expected to reach 105-110. If you plan to spend time outdoors, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks.
ALT 2 images of eastern KS and Missouri. The first shows heat index values ranging from 103-111 across the area for Sunday. It also shows a heat advisory for the entire area Sunday with an excessive heat warning for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Flash Flood Warning including Marshall MO, Boonville MO and Odessa MO until 7:45 AM CDT
ALT This graphic displays a flash flood warning plotted on a map. The warning is in effect until 7:45 AM CDT. The warning includes Marshall MO, Boonville MO and Odessa MO. This warning is for Northern Cooper County in central Missouri, Howard County in central Missouri, Northern Pettis County in central Missouri, Saline County in central Missouri, Southeastern Chariton County in north central Missouri, Northern Johnson County in west central Missouri and Lafayette County in west central Missouri. Avoid walking or driving through flood waters! Move immediately to higher ground! There are 67,899 people in the warning along with 47 schools and 3 hospitals.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Illinois, Kansas and Missouri until 12 AM CDT
ALT This graphic displays Severe Thunderstorm watch number 498 plotted on a map. The watch is in effect until 12:00 AM CDT. The watch includes parts of Illinois, Kansas and Missouri. The threats associated with this watch are a couple tornadoes possible, scattered hail up to two inch size possible and scattered gusts up to 75 mph likely. There are 3,032,309 people in the watch along with 1235 schools and 81 hospitals.
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Kansas and Missouri until 11 PM CDT
ALT This graphic displays Tornado Watch watch number 480 plotted on a map. The watch is in effect until 11:00 PM CDT. The watch includes parts of Kansas and Missouri. The threats associated with this watch are a couple tornadoes possible, scattered hail up to tennis ball size likely and scattered gusts up to 75 mph likely. There are 3,099,925 people in the watch along with 1293 schools and 95 hospitals.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Marshall MO, Macon MO and Higginsville MO until 2:15 AM CDT
ALT This graphic displays a severe thunderstorm warning plotted on a map. The warning is in effect until 2:15 AM CDT. The warning includes Marshall MO, Macon MO and Higginsville MO. This warning is for Chariton County in north central Missouri, Northwestern Randolph County in north central Missouri, Southeastern Linn County in north central Missouri, Carroll County in north central Missouri, Saline County in central Missouri, Macon County in north central Missouri and Eastern Lafayette County in west central Missouri. The threats associated with this warning are wind gusts up to 60 MPH and nickel sized hail. There are 57,747 people in the warning along with 62 schools and 3 hospitals.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Illinois, Iowa and Missouri until 9 PM CDT
ALT This graphic displays Severe Thunderstorm watch number 302 plotted on a map. The watch is in effect until 9:00 PM CDT. The watch includes parts of Illinois, Iowa and Missouri. The threats associated with this watch are a couple tornadoes possible, scattered hail up to two inch size possible and scattered gusts up to 70 mph possible. There are 4,446,383 people in the watch along with 1823 schools and 120 hospitals.
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma until 10 PM CDT
ALT This graphic displays Tornado Watch watch number 278 plotted on a map. The watch is in effect until 10:00 PM CDT. The watch includes parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma. The threats associated with this watch are a few tornadoes likely, scattered hail up to softball size likely and scattered gusts up to 75 mph likely. There are 5,509,393 people in the watch along with 2165 schools and 167 hospitals.
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across the area Tuesday. A few storms may be ongoing in northern MO in the morning, but the greatest concern for severe storms will be through the afternoon and evening. #mowx#kswx#KC
ALT Waves of thunderstorms are possible, mainly north of I-70 early Tuesday morning. Large hail(up to 2” in diameter) and damaging
winds (winds up to 65 mph) are the main threats. New storm development possible after 2 PM Tuesday afternoon. Expected afternoon development of storms will be from west central MO to northeast
MO, with the line progressing southeast. When storms are isolated-scattered in nature: All hazards including strong tornadoes are
possible. Once storms develop into a line: Wind gusts in excess of 70 MPH, Hail to the size of half dollars, and brief tornadoes are all possible.
Thunderstorms are expected to build into the region after 9 PM tonight. Straight-line winds gusts up to 65 mph are possible with the stronger storms. The storms are expected to weaken as they move east.
Timing for extreme eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri: 8-11 PM tonight. Wind gusts could exceed 75 mph, with embedded tornadoes possible as well. Be prepared with multiple ways to receive warnings and know your safe shelter in advance.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Kansas and Missouri until 12 AM CDT
ALT This graphic displays Severe Thunderstorm watch number 166 plotted on a map. The watch is in effect until 12:00 AM CDT. The watch includes parts of Kansas and Missouri. The threats associated with this watch are a couple tornadoes possible, scattered hail up to tennis ball size likely and scattered gusts up to 75 mph likely. There are 2,510,085 people in the watch along with 990 schools and 69 hospitals.
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Kansas and Missouri until 12 AM CDT
ALT This graphic displays Tornado Watch watch number 149 plotted on a map. The watch is in effect until 12:00 AM CDT. The watch includes parts of Kansas and Missouri. The threats associated with this watch are a few tornadoes likely, scattered hail up to two inch size likely and widespread gusts up to 70 mph likely. There are 2,760,928 people in the watch along with 1111 schools and 84 hospitals.
We've been fielding some questions this morning on what the threat levels mean so here is the reference. Some additional interesting info...we average less than one moderate per year somewhere in our forecast area. Our last high risk day was in 2008! (and let's keep it that way)
4:20 pm update: the severe weather threat has come to an end across the region. There are no active severe weather watches, warnings, or advisories in effect. However, the wind advisory remains in effect through 7 pm this evening