We're launching Bridge today 🌉 An AI engine that builds virtual homes. Blueprint in, walkable home out. Every plan, every option, structural changes included. What took 3D artists months now takes days. Homebuilders can finally show buyers every home they sell. arcway.ai

Proud to share that @Base10Partners has announced $850M in new capital to continue backing founders transforming the real economy, bringing total AUM to $2.6B When we started Base10, we believed the largest parts of the economy: logistics, healthcare, construction, manufacturing, financial services, and other essential industries, were still underserved by modern technology. That conviction feels more relevant than ever. AI is moving from demos into real workflows, creating enormous opportunities to help real-world businesses operate with greater speed, intelligence, and efficiency. Grateful to our LPs, founders, and the entire Base10 team for helping build the firm to this point. Excited for the future!

One of the most inspiring things about @Alphaschool is how ambitious it is

Introducing “Comeback City: A Love Letter to San Francisco.” Proud to call this place home.

In 2023, we pivoted from a generalist fund to a thesis-driven AI and frontier firm. In the midst of this takeoff curve, it’s been wonderful and hard work with our founders, with many lessons and victories along the way. The good work continues, and today I’m excited to share our newest $355M fund! Thanks to @ychernova and @WSJ for writing about our new set of funds, our recent performance, and our renewed early stage mission at @KindredVentures. ☀️ wsj.com/pro/venture-capital/…

so grateful to get to live in this incredible time, and do this interesting work. thank you all for the friendship and support.

Alright we're doing it! @cantos is teaming up with our friends at @Toyota_Ventures, @ImpulseLabs, & @westmagco for #SFDeepTechWeek! Join us June 24th at the Impulse/WestMag space to celebrate Bay Area builders ⚙️⚡️🌉 luma.com/toookf1f

Endorse

Welp, that happened faster than I predicted. Thought it would be end of 2027, then early 2027, but agentic traffic growing so fast that bots have now passed human traffic online for the first time in the Internet's history. radar.cloudflare.com/traffic…

Congrats team @ScrunchAI on the $225M acquisition!

Town has been a game changer for my workflow. Try it out, you won’t go back. Congrats JDG, Tony, and team Town!

🎉 Today, we're excited to share that we've closed two new funds: @VersionOneVC Fund V ($78M) and Opportunities Fund III ($30M). 🎉 More link to blog post in thread below...

My biggest takeaways from @benedictevans: 1. We’re in 1997 for AI—it’s as big a deal as the internet or mobile, and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile. We’re at the stage where most stuff kind of doesn’t work yet, most of what people will build hasn’t been built, and it’s not clear how any of it will work when it does. Some people in tech have bought clusters of Mac Minis, while even among 13-to-18-year-olds, only about 15% to 20% are daily active users of AI. The companies that win may not exist yet, and the use cases that matter most are probably invisible to us today. 2. Every technology wave brings ways to ruin people’s lives, deliberately or by accident, and we need to be conscious of that without panicking. Every wave of technology—databases in the 1970s, social media in the 2010s, AI today—creates new ways to harm people. We need to be conscious of these risks, build safeguards, and hold people accountable. But we also can’t let fear of potential harms stop us from capturing the benefits. The goal is thoughtful deployment, not paralysis. 3. Things will probably be okay—but “on average” hides a lot of individual pain. We’ve been automating jobs and creating new jobs since 1800. Each time, you can see the jobs that will disappear but not the new jobs, because they don’t exist yet. We go through frictional pain, dislocation, people lose jobs, towns get hollowed out, and it all sucks. But we come through richer, and we’re not worried about crops failing anymore. 4. If you’re worried about your job, the worst thing you can do is stick your head in the sand and declare AI evil. Yes, some professions face major questions, particularly if you’re an associate or would have been thinking about becoming one. The pyramid structure of professional services may fundamentally change. What helps is submerging yourself in AI, understanding what you can do with it, how it changes things, and how you can be a great hire in this new environment. That may still not be enough, but it’s the only path forward. 5. The history of accounting shows us how automation often increases employment rather than decreasing it. Despite adding machines, punch cards, mainframes, databases, ERP systems, cloud software, spreadsheets, and PCs, the number of accountants keeps going up. This is the Jevons paradox: when you make something cheaper or easier, you don’t do the same amount of work for less money. You often do vastly more because the ROI changes. 6. Distribution is becoming a more valuable moat as software gets easier to build, which favors incumbents. As AI makes building software cheaper and faster, the market gets noisier. More products launch, more companies compete for attention, and breaking through becomes harder. This means distribution—the ability to reach customers and get them to use your product—matters more than ever. 7. Foundation AI model companies won’t have lasting pricing power, and value will likely accrue up the stack. The models don’t seem to have network effects, so there’s no winner-takes-all dynamic. If you have indefinite competition between three to six foundation model providers, and the models look like undifferentiated commodities to users, why would anyone have pricing power? The current pricing chaos—people spending $1.5 million on inference in a month—is temporary disequilibrium, like someone getting a $50,000 mobile data bill in 2010. The steady state will look different. 8. OpenAI and Anthropic are buying consultancies and PE firms. This seems counterintuitive—aren’t these the companies that should need consultants least? But the reality is that companies don’t have people sitting around waiting to reimagine all their internal workflows and figure out which could be automated with AI. That’s a project requiring five to 10 people spending months working it out, then actually implementing it across vertical and horizontal systems. 9. The fundamental question isn’t whether AI automates your job—it’s whether your profession is a "task" or a job. Some jobs are just tasks, and when you automate the task, the job disappears (i.e. elevator attendants). But in most professions, the task you think you’re being paid for isn’t actually what you’re being paid for. McKinsey doesn’t get hired to produce a 75-slide deck—they get hired to walk through your enterprise, understand the politics, talk to customers, and figure out what you actually need to do. The deck is just the artifact. 10. The anti-AI backlash is real, and a fuzzy mass of different concerns, some real and some not—much like the social media backlash. There are tangible concerns: electricity bills went up in some places, though this applies to very few locations objectively. The water consumption issue is largely false; data centers use about 0.017% of U.S. water consumption. There are real questions about jobs, though economists can’t yet find clear consensus in the data about AI’s employment impact. There’s also the culture war over AI-generated content and “AI slop.” The challenge is that all of this creates political pressure even when the underlying facts are unclear or contested.

This is a plan for Phase 2 of the National Security Renaissance: Project Alexander. It proposes a national security asset class to accelerate the effective and efficient deployment of capital into technologies vital to the nation's security. 🇺🇸 Our Congress, Treasury Department, and private citizenry have the power today to enact critical reforms that will have an immediate and transformational impact on American innovation. All feedback welcome! 🧵1/14

If you’re interested in fertility decline, it’s worth listening to the data and interpretation from economist-demographer @JesusFerna7026 open.spotify.com/episode/0Bn…

Congrats @AlexYancher and team @PassportGlobal1 for your $425M acquisition agreeement. Passport was the first SPV I led on @angellist. It launched my journey as a solo investor. @AlexYancher and @Aaronschwartz35, thanks for being open to taking a check from me nine years ago.

Gonna use "metabolize the innovation"

Wild times