Ex. barber. I share my thoughts and trade how i like. Discipline is a key. NFA 🦅

Joined August 2024
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Pinned Tweet
🚨 THIS IS HOW YOU BECOME EXIT LIQUIDITY FOR SPACEX Better to buy $SPCX a year from now, not today Even today's Mag 7 stocks went through brutal corrections during their first year after IPO: - Meta: -60% - Tesla: -80% - Amazon: -90% - Nvidia: -85% - Apple: -69% The median maximum drawdown for major tech IPOs over the past few decades is around 60-70% Nobody escaped the drop - that's the lesson here The reasons are pretty simple, although apparently not everyone gets it: IPOs almost always happen at peak hype - valuations are inflated 4-6 months after the IPO, the lock-up period ends → selling pressure hits the stock The market starts valuing the company more realistically and a repricing begins Even great companies often report losses or slowing growth during their first year as public companies, which disappoints investors On top of that, macro factors like recessions, higher interest rates, and other shocks can make the selloff even worse For SpaceX, the setup could look very similar: Record-breaking IPO, massive hype, $2 trillion valuation Based on historical data, the odds of a 50% drawdown in the first year are pretty high I've looked at most of these companies, and the best buying opportunities almost always came 6-18 months after the IPO The people who bought Meta, Tesla, or Amazon a year after they went public made fortunes But the people who bought at the IPO price usually sat in the red for a long time Pick the right moment and don't waste your money for nothing I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Jun 10
🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500 Read the post carefully before buying stocks 3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion: 1. The biggest IPO wave in decades - SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion( $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12) - OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion - Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion 2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200 billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components 3. History shows a concerning pattern At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies: - The Roaring Twenties - The Nifty Fifty era - Japan's 1980s asset bubble - The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000 Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes 4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns: - Amazon: -95% - Microsoft: -65% - Intel: -80% - Oracle: -80% - Yahoo: -97% A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
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Leni retweeted
🚨 THIS IS HOW YOU BECOME EXIT LIQUIDITY FOR SPACEX Better to buy $SPCX a year from now, not today Even today's Mag 7 stocks went through brutal corrections during their first year after IPO: - Meta: -60% - Tesla: -80% - Amazon: -90% - Nvidia: -85% - Apple: -69% The median maximum drawdown for major tech IPOs over the past few decades is around 60-70% Nobody escaped the drop - that's the lesson here The reasons are pretty simple, although apparently not everyone gets it: IPOs almost always happen at peak hype - valuations are inflated 4-6 months after the IPO, the lock-up period ends → selling pressure hits the stock The market starts valuing the company more realistically and a repricing begins Even great companies often report losses or slowing growth during their first year as public companies, which disappoints investors On top of that, macro factors like recessions, higher interest rates, and other shocks can make the selloff even worse For SpaceX, the setup could look very similar: Record-breaking IPO, massive hype, $2 trillion valuation Based on historical data, the odds of a 50% drawdown in the first year are pretty high I've looked at most of these companies, and the best buying opportunities almost always came 6-18 months after the IPO The people who bought Meta, Tesla, or Amazon a year after they went public made fortunes But the people who bought at the IPO price usually sat in the red for a long time Pick the right moment and don't waste your money for nothing I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Jun 10
🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500 Read the post carefully before buying stocks 3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion: 1. The biggest IPO wave in decades - SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion( $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12) - OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion - Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion 2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200 billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components 3. History shows a concerning pattern At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies: - The Roaring Twenties - The Nifty Fifty era - Japan's 1980s asset bubble - The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000 Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes 4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns: - Amazon: -95% - Microsoft: -65% - Intel: -80% - Oracle: -80% - Yahoo: -97% A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
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Leni retweeted
Jun 12
🚨 THIS LOOKS REALLY SCARY We've seen this before: Dot-Com crash & 2008 crisis 1. The S&P 500 saw strong growth from 1995 to 1999 1995: 37.6% 1996: 23.0% 1997: 33.4% 1998: 28.6% 1999: 21.0% 5 year and then came a 50% CRASH 2. Later, since 2003, the S&P 500 rallied for another 5 straight years 2003: 28.68% 2004: 10.88% 2005: 4.91% 2006: 15.79% 2007: 5.49% 5 year and then came a 52% CRASH 3. Here's what the S&P 500 has done since 2023: 2023: 24.2% 2024: 23.3% 2025: 17.1% 2026: already 7.7% 2027: ??? Doesn't any of this concern you? Does it all really seem normal? Let's assume the S&P 500 is trading around $8,500-9,500 by the end of 2026 The market will have posted strong gains for 4 straight years, and most of that growth will have been driven by the tech sector But you're smart people - you understand that electricity demand from data centers, largely driven by AI, is growing extremely fast Many new data center projects in the U.S. are already being delayed or canceled because of grid capacity constraints, transformer shortages, and long connection wait times And if that continues, companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta could start issuing weaker AI revenue growth guidance for 2027-2028 That could force investors to reprice tech giants lower The market is already pricing in extremely aggressive AI growth expectations, so any slowdown could be painful On top of all that, SpaceX ( $SPCX ) starting trading today on Nasdaq, and it's also considered part of the tech sector Then later this year, the market could see IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI as well Large IPO waves have historically impacted liquidity and investor sentiment Read this twice if you want to understand why I'm concerned about what's coming next I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Jun 10
🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500 Read the post carefully before buying stocks 3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion: 1. The biggest IPO wave in decades - SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion( $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12) - OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion - Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion 2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200 billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components 3. History shows a concerning pattern At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies: - The Roaring Twenties - The Nifty Fifty era - Japan's 1980s asset bubble - The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000 Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes 4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns: - Amazon: -95% - Microsoft: -65% - Intel: -80% - Oracle: -80% - Yahoo: -97% A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
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Jun 11
🚨 WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT THIS Zoom out on the Bitcoin chart and you'll see the bigger picture Read this twice: 1. Every bull market is followed by a bear market. Every rally comes with a correction. That's how markets have always worked If you open the monthly chart, you'll see that Bitcoin is still in a long-term uptrend What we're seeing right now is just another correction within that larger trend (MONTHLY CHART!) 2. Every cycle since 2014 has come with a smaller drawdown than the previous one: - 2014 - around -86% - 2018 - around -84% - 2022 - around -77% 3. VERY IMPORTANT: Historically, Bitcoin has formed cycle bottoms around the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels 2014 → 2018 → 2022 → 2026 The pattern has held up so far, which means this cycle may not be any different 4. Pretty much everything has changed over the years, except one thing - crowd psychology I don't believe we've found the cycle bottom yet because HOPE is still there and there's not enough FEAR The manipulation phase isn't over yet - it's only getting started That's why I'm 90% convinced Bitcoin will first test the $57,000 level, and after that the path toward $40,000 opens up But since every cycle after 2014 has seen a smaller overall correction, I think the bottom will likely be somewhere between $40,000 and $45,000 As long as the higher-timeframe structure remains unchanged, I'll keep looking at the market through the lens of long-term cycles Follow the trend, and you'll know more than 90% of everyone else I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Jun 9
🚨 What's happening right now already happened in 2022 The same MANIPULATION is forming again for Bitcoin History suggests a much bigger move is coming 2022: Top 1 → Сorrection → Top 2 → 120-day range with a bull trap → dump → Manipulation → Accumulation 2026: Top 1 → Сorrection → Top 2 → 120-day range with a bull trap → dump → Manipulation → Accumulation Most people think the worst is already behind us, but if you compare it to 2022, this is exactly what the market looked like before the most painful part began Only after major manipulation did the market show real fear and most people capitulated I've told you this before, you need to remember that there are 3 phases: - Distribution - Manipulation - Accumulation Right now, the structure looks disturbingly familiar So far, all I see on the chart is manipulation aimed at taking liquidity from both longs and shorts Of course, the market doesn't have to repeat 2022, but the similarities are absolutely insane And if you hide the dates on both charts, the resemblance is way too strong to ignore I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan The problem is that most people will realize it too late because they're not following me Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
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Jun 11
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Jun 10
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Leni retweeted
Every IPO in history follows the same script: SpaceX won't be different
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Jun 10
🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500 Read the post carefully before buying stocks 3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion: 1. The biggest IPO wave in decades - SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion( $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12) - OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion - Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion 2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200 billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components 3. History shows a concerning pattern At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies: - The Roaring Twenties - The Nifty Fifty era - Japan's 1980s asset bubble - The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000 Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes 4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns: - Amazon: -95% - Microsoft: -65% - Intel: -80% - Oracle: -80% - Yahoo: -97% A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Jun 6
🚨 S&P 500 MORE DANGEROUS RIGHT NOW THAN IT LOOKS The illusion of safety is what can make you poor I keep seeing people say, "It probably won't crash, it always goes up" That's exactly what concerns me When you buy an individual stock, you got that you can lose money But with the S&P 500, it's different, most people don't even consider the possibility of a crash anymore Just look at the dot-com bubble - back then, everyone thought everything was fine and the index would keep climbing for years But the final stage of every bubble begins when prices become absurd and fear disappears And prices right now really are getting absurd. The index is printing new highs almost every day with barely any meaningful pullbacks I'm not saying a crash is coming Monday, for example, but I am warning you that markets become the most vulnerable when the majority stops seeing any risk Right now I'm watching investor confidence closely, and the level of euphoria is extreme. That's usually the final stage Are you ready for what could happen next? Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
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Jun 9
🚨 What's happening right now already happened in 2022 The same MANIPULATION is forming again for Bitcoin History suggests a much bigger move is coming 2022: Top 1 → Сorrection → Top 2 → 120-day range with a bull trap → dump → Manipulation → Accumulation 2026: Top 1 → Сorrection → Top 2 → 120-day range with a bull trap → dump → Manipulation → Accumulation Most people think the worst is already behind us, but if you compare it to 2022, this is exactly what the market looked like before the most painful part began Only after major manipulation did the market show real fear and most people capitulated I've told you this before, you need to remember that there are 3 phases: - Distribution - Manipulation - Accumulation Right now, the structure looks disturbingly familiar So far, all I see on the chart is manipulation aimed at taking liquidity from both longs and shorts Of course, the market doesn't have to repeat 2022, but the similarities are absolutely insane And if you hide the dates on both charts, the resemblance is way too strong to ignore I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan The problem is that most people will realize it too late because they're not following me Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Jun 7
🚨 This scenario has repeated itself for 3 cycles in a row It shows up BEFORE EVERY major manipulation That's why I'm still bearish on Bitcoin You need to remember that there are 3 phases: - Distribution - Manipulation - Accumulation Right now we're in the MANIPULATION phase Distribution is already over But accumulation hasn't even started yet And I don't understand why most people don't see it - it's the same thing every cycle, just look at the chart, study Wyckoff, and it'll all make sense 2018 → 2022 → 2026 I also don't get the people waiting for $30k, think about it yourself - is it possible? Absolutely But what are the chances it actually happens? Pretty low This is exactly how smart money shakes out the last weak hands and turns you into exit liquidity So sure, you can buy here, but only through DCA, don't assume the bottom is in, you should have buy targets set for every major dip I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan In 2-3 weeks we'll see who's actually right Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
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Jun 9
One more thing I'd like to add The biggest mistake most people make is thinking the bottom is defined by price In reality, a true bottom only forms when HOPE disappears Back in 2022, the market gave people plenty of reasons to believe the selloff was over before delivering the final capitulation move
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Jun 8
🚨 WARNING: THE SPACEX IPO IS THE BIGGEST TRAP OF 2026 Read this post carefully before buying SpaceX shares In 4 days, $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq The biggest IPO in history, with a valuation of around $1.8 trillion You may have noticed that demand has already exceeded $150 billion, while the public float is only 4-5% And I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the stock could easily jump 20-50% in the first days or weeks purely because of FOMO and the limited share supply But after that, the picture could change dramatically! 1. SpaceX didn't use the standard 180-day lock-up Instead, the S-1 includes a phased unlock schedule Insiders, employees, and early investors will be able to sell shares in stages starting in August: - August 21 (70 days) - 7% - September 10 (90 days) - 7% - September 25 (105 days) - 7% - October 10 (120 days) - 7% - October 25 (135 days) - 7% 2. On top of that, they removed the profitability requirement and are adding SpaceX to major indexes just 5 days after the IPO, while the usual waiting period is 90 days That forces 401(k) pension funds and passive index funds to buy SpaceX shares at inflated IPO prices and keep holding them throughout any decline 3. On top of that, there are major share releases after the Q2 earnings report (August) and Q3 earnings report (November) If the stock is trading 30% above the IPO price after Q2, a performance bonus will kick in and another 10% will be unlocked This staggered selling structure reduces the chance of one massive crash, but it creates several waves of selling pressure between August and November For comparison: when Meta went public in 2012 (one of the top 3 largest IPO in U.S. history, with a $104 billion valuation) The stock fell more than 60% within a few months after the IPO due to lock-up expirations and market concerns about its ability to monetize its business And there's one very important thing you need to remember! 4. The company is still unprofitable, posting roughly a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 Passive funds (Nasdaq-100) will become forced buyers, but at the first sign of bad news they'll become forced sellers That's why I'm warning you not to become exit liquidity for insiders and VCs who have already made huge money from private funding rounds In the short term, the IPO looks very attractive for traders who know how to speculate But if you're planning to hold, you need to clearly understand this: August through November could bring serious volatility and a major correction I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
🚨 Elon Musk is projected to become the world's FIRST TRILLIONAIRE this Friday, the day SpaceX goes public. A ~42% stake in a ~$1.77 TRILLION company, plus his Tesla and xAI holdings. This pushes him past $1,000,000,000,000 in a single trading session.
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Jun 8
Ask yourself one simple question: Are you buying because you got all the risks, or because you're scared of missing out? Don't become exit liquidity for insiders and funds that got in at completely different valuations Be careful and do your own research
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Jun 7
🚨 This scenario has repeated itself for 3 cycles in a row It shows up BEFORE EVERY major manipulation That's why I'm still bearish on Bitcoin You need to remember that there are 3 phases: - Distribution - Manipulation - Accumulation Right now we're in the MANIPULATION phase Distribution is already over But accumulation hasn't even started yet And I don't understand why most people don't see it - it's the same thing every cycle, just look at the chart, study Wyckoff, and it'll all make sense 2018 → 2022 → 2026 I also don't get the people waiting for $30k, think about it yourself - is it possible? Absolutely But what are the chances it actually happens? Pretty low This is exactly how smart money shakes out the last weak hands and turns you into exit liquidity So sure, you can buy here, but only through DCA, don't assume the bottom is in, you should have buy targets set for every major dip I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan In 2-3 weeks we'll see who's actually right Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Apr 29
$BTC. You're welcome I saved you a lot of time
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Jun 7
And I've got a pretty interesting question for you: Let's say Bitcoin drops another 25% tomorrow - would you be happy to buy cheaper, or would you start panic selling? The answer to that question will show whether you actually have a strategy or if you're just following your emotions
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Jun 6
🚨 S&P 500 MORE DANGEROUS RIGHT NOW THAN IT LOOKS The illusion of safety is what can make you poor I keep seeing people say, "It probably won't crash, it always goes up" That's exactly what concerns me When you buy an individual stock, you got that you can lose money But with the S&P 500, it's different, most people don't even consider the possibility of a crash anymore Just look at the dot-com bubble - back then, everyone thought everything was fine and the index would keep climbing for years But the final stage of every bubble begins when prices become absurd and fear disappears And prices right now really are getting absurd. The index is printing new highs almost every day with barely any meaningful pullbacks I'm not saying a crash is coming Monday, for example, but I am warning you that markets become the most vulnerable when the majority stops seeing any risk Right now I'm watching investor confidence closely, and the level of euphoria is extreme. That's usually the final stage Are you ready for what could happen next? Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
What just happened? The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)
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Jun 5
Everything is unfolding exactly as planned 2018 → 2022 → 2026 4-year Bitcoin cycle is repeating: 2015–2017: 35 bull months 2017–2018: 12 bear months 2018–2021: 35 bull months 2021–2022: 12 bear months 2022–2025: 35 bull months 2026–2027: We are here We've been in a bear market for 8 months, 4 more to go I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Jun 2
Be prepared to buy $BTC in Sep-Oct Everything is moving according to plan, just like I expected The bottom will be in Sep-Oct somewhere between $40k and $50k I just saved you a lot of time, you'll thank me later In a few months, we'll come back and see who was right Remember this or better yet, bookmark this chart
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