Mid-Atlantic gang – the potential exists for a regional tornado episode on Monday, March 16. This reminds me a bit of February 23-24, 2016. Long-time residents will recognize the day.
Now is the time to begin reviewing your severe weather plan... actually. We get 1-2 "tornado days" a year. We anticipate Monday will be one of them. (
@MatthewCappucci spends a lot of time in the Midwest and on the Plains; the environment Monday will be rather similar to what he sees out west.)
We're still 4 days out from the event, but the "synoptic," or broad-scale picture, is somewhat concerning. We'll have a potent upper-air disturbance taking on a "\", or backslash shape, akin to a soccer player kicking a ball. That follow-through, or "negative tilt," gives the system more kick.
It will be just warm and humid enough for us to build some thunderstorm fuel, ESPECIALLY if the front slows down. Some of our high-resolution computer models are depicting "prefrontal" storms, or lone, discrete supercells popping ahead of an incoming squall line.
With robust shear, or changing winds with height, and a jet stream screaming overhead, these storms will rotate. IF any storms form ahead of the main line, they'll become spinning supercells with hail/tornado potential.
Then a fierce squall line will come through with damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadoes.
A lot can change, but for now, we'd like to start raising awareness of a potentially significant severe weather episode. We'll have more in the days ahead.