The calls that defined the cycle Deep Dives Digital Asset Research markusthielen.com/

Crypto One Liners - Crypto Currencies BTC (-1.2%) — $3B in ETF outflows over 10 sessions plus Iran-driven risk-off pressure dragged Bitcoin toward $60K; milder core CPI provided a floor but high rates capped any recovery. ETH (-11.1%) — Down 67% from its August 2025 ATH, ETH faced 17 consecutive days of ETF outflows ($401M), eight Ethereum Foundation departures, and a viral — but debunked — founder sell-off rumor. SOL (-12.7%) — A 620K token unlock, Goldman fully liquidating its SOL ETF, and Pump fun selling 100K SOL created a perfect supply storm; eight consecutive months of losses, an unprecedented streak. XRP (-9.1%) — Ripple Prime confirmed in a DTCC tokenized securities working group with Goldman, JPMorgan, and BlackRock (pilot July 2026), but the institutional headline was no match for the macro selloff. BNB (-6.0%) — The 35th quarterly burn removed $1.32B of supply permanently and RWA value surged 76% in Q1, yet price barely reacted — one of the week's bigger fundamental-vs-price disconnects. TRX (-3.5%) — Spot listing on US-regulated Bitnomial and MiFID-compliant OKX Europe perpetuals expanded institutional access on both continents; the week's most resilient major altcoin. TON (-18.0%) — Sharding upgrade caused a six-hour network outage, triggering panic selling by large holders; emergency fixes deployed but infrastructure credibility took a serious hit. XLM (-13.2%) — DTCC's Stellar tokenized securities selection sparked a sharp rally before the broader selloff and a quantum security roadmap announcement reversed all gains — textbook "buy the news, sell everything else." ENA (-37.4%) — Coinbase Ventures and Janus Henderson both invested, with USDe set to go live for 100M Coinbase users, yet a mysterious $503M PYUSD transfer fueled speculation and made ENA the week's worst large-cap performer. JUP (-27.5%) — Traded as a pure high-beta SOL proxy with no new catalysts; a June token unlock adds supply overhang despite Jupiter Lend hitting $845M TVL. SUI (-13.1%) — A gas-charging bug caused a six-hour mainnet stall and panic selling, though the confidential transfers beta launch and a sold-out SpaceX tokenized pre-IPO in 50 minutes demonstrated real product momentum. NEAR (-30.6%) — Arthur Hayes liquidated his entire position without warning, triggering a cascade of leveraged liquidations that an AI firm's infrastructure backing couldn't arrest. More one liners, including crypto currencies, crypto stocks, macro, see previous posts or link in bio.

Bitcoin's Cyclical Bottom: Real Floor or "Different This Time"? On October 22, 2025, we suggested that Bitcoin was entering a bear market, a thesis we detailed during a mid-November CoinDesk interview broadcasted on December 2, 2025 (watch from minute 17:00), where we projected a decline toward $50,000. Now, with the latest inflation data softening, some traders are wondering if the recent retest of $60,000 marked the absolute cycle low. In our recent BBC interview, we noted that sticky inflation would likely remain a headwind before institutional investors commit serious capital back to the asset class. So, are we changing our view based on this month-on-month CPI improvement? Has the cycle truly bottomed? We initially penciled in a summer low for this cycle. Savvy market participants understand that investing in Bitcoin is not about simple dollar-cost averaging, but about actively trading these macro cycles. The "OG" investors proved this last year by perfectly distributing billions of dollars in Bitcoin to inexperienced Wall Street newcomers. While one group focused strictly on the cycles, the other was blinded by the narrative of digital gold. The charts below answer the most critical question in crypto today: have we printed the cycle low, and if not, when will it occur? Bitcoin (LHS) - oversold, but is this really the time to load up?

Crypto One Liners - Crypto Equities MSTR (-8.9%) — CEO share sale spooked the market at $60K BTC, but a 1,550 BTC buyback restored confidence; STRC trading below par signals preferred-equity stress. 3350.T (-9.8%) — Metaplanet cut its warrant floor from ¥298 to ¥187 as mNAV fell below 1.0x, BTC yield turned negative, and unrealized losses hit $1.64 billion. BMNR (-7.5%) — Largest weekly ETH buy of 2026 ($214M) lifted shares 5% premarket before a $274M preferred offering sent common stock down 5–10% on dilution fears. BNC (-22.6%) — Lawsuit against asset manager 10X Capital plus a Nasdaq delisting warning for missing its AGM created a dual governance crisis driving shares to historic lows. GLXY ( 5.8%) — America's largest planned AI data center (1.6 GW, West Texas, half-leased), a NYDFS BitLicense, and a Morgan Stanley ETP partnership drove the week's standout gain. COIN (-5.7%) — Baird's "Bearish Fresh Pick" downgrade flagged a Q2 revenue miss and CLARITY Act delays, while Bybit's tokenized SpaceX IPO product took direct aim at Coinbase's pre-IPO business. HOOD ( 4.2%) — IPO underwriting approval, record $377B platform assets ( 48% YoY), a $20.2M insider buy, and a Goldman price target raise to $105 made Robinhood the week's clearest crypto-equity winner. BLSH (-7.1%) — Solid May volume metrics ($32.9B) were overwhelmed by a Wall Street Sell downgrade and executive insider selling; shares down 38% over the past month. CRCL (-12.4%) — Stripe/Visa/Mastercard rival stablecoin platform reports hit USDC's moat thesis hard; Mizuho cut its target to $85 from $135, and CEO Allaire's $5M stock sale added fuel to the fire. BTGO (-8.7%) — Dubai VARA launch was a genuine positive, but a Goldman price target cut to $9 from $10.50 kept a lid on any recovery. BTDR (-18.3%) — COO, CBO, and CFO all departed within weeks of each other; management's "controlled restructuring" framing did little to calm investors. HUT (-19.5%) — No company-specific news beyond the AGM; pure sector selling, down nearly 20% on the week. IREN (-21.3%) — Bernstein's Street-high $100 target and "Nvidia blessing" endorsement, plus an 800 MW South Australia campus announcement, couldn't prevent IREN from falling with the broader mining complex. More one liners, including crypto currencies, see previous posts or link in bio.

@RobinhoodApp Markets (HOOD is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and is above the 30-day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of 4.4%) *** Robinhood Securities received regulatory approval to act as an IPO underwriter, a major expansion into investment banking. *** May 2026 operating data showed $377 billion in platform assets, 27.7 million funded customers, and $5.6 billion in net deposits, with platform assets up 48% year-over-year, sending shares up over 6%. *** Director Meye Malka purchased $20.2 million worth of common stock, a strong insider confidence signal. @GoldmanSachs raised its price target to $105 from $95, maintaining a Buy rating. *** Robinhood launches agentic trading, announces credit card for AI agents with 3% cash back Full list of all crypto equities, including @coinbase @GalaxyDigital @circle @Bullish @Bitdeer @MicroStrategy @BitMNR -> full list with "10x Crypto Equities — Tradeable Setups" - see link in the comments section.

Ethereum / ETH (-11.1%) — ETH has fallen 67% from its August 2025 all-time high near $1,620, with 17 consecutive days of ETF outflows totalling $401 million and eight senior Ethereum Foundation departures raising governance concerns. A viral rumor of a $170 million founder sell-off briefly accelerated the decline before being debunked. Solana / SOL (-12.7%) — A 620,000 SOL token unlock, Goldman Sachs fully liquidating its SOL ETF exposure, and Pump dot fun selling 100,000 SOL in a single week combined for a brutal supply shock. SOL has now recorded eight consecutive months of losses, an unprecedented streak. Ripple / XRP (-9.1%) — Ripple Prime was confirmed in a DTCC working group alongside Goldman, JPMorgan, and BlackRock to develop tokenized securities standards, with a pilot launching in July 2026. The positive institutional signal was overwhelmed by the broader crypto selloff. BNB Chain / BNB (-6.0%) — The 35th quarterly burn removed 2.14 million BNB ($1.32 billion) from supply permanently, yet the price barely reacted. Tokenized RWA value surged 76% in Q1 and 150,000 AI agents now operate on BNB Chain, providing bullish fundamental underpinning. Tron / TRX (-3.5%) — TRX launched spot trading on US-regulated exchange Bitnomial and OKX Europe listed MiFID-compliant TRX perpetuals, meaningfully expanding institutional access on both sides of the Atlantic. Among the week’s more resilient performers in the altcoin space. TON (-18.0%) — Protocol sharding updates caused severe synchronization failures, triggering widespread network congestion, application outages, and panic selling by large holders. Emergency protocol upgrades were deployed, but the outage exposed infrastructure fragility at the worst possible time. Stellar / XLM (-13.2%) — DTCC selected Stellar to process tokenized securities, sparking a sharp early-week rally, before the broader crypto selloff and the Stellar Development Foundation’s quantum security roadmap announcement triggered a 12% reversal. The week encapsulated the “buy the news, sell everything else” dynamic. ----- Below, we break down the critical developments across the top 50 altcoins we monitor, trend setups, latest news, and the catalysts that matter. The exercise has two equally important goals: identifying the handful of altcoins worth owning, and recognizing the ones that don't make the cut. The latter is arguably more important. Many of these tokens are going to zero. That is not dogma, it is arithmetic. Full report: The Altcoin Graveyard: What Survives and What Goes to Zero -> link in the comments section.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD is below the 7-day moving average -> bearish, and is below the 30-day moving average -> bearish, with 1 week change of -4.4%) *** U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $3 billion in net outflows over 10 consecutive sessions since May 30, as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions triggered a broad risk-off rotation. *** Bitcoin steadied after a closely watched United States inflation report revealed hot headline inflation at 4.2% but showed milder core inflation figures than anticipated. *** Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding high interest rates continues to prevent a major recovery. *** Additional downward pressure stemmed from broader geopolitical anxieties and rising bond yields, which affected risk assets globally. ----- Below, we break down the critical developments across the top 50 altcoins we monitor, trend setups, latest news, and the catalysts that matter. The exercise has two equally important goals: identifying the handful of altcoins worth owning, and recognizing the ones that don't make the cut. The latter is arguably more important. Many of these tokens are going to zero. That is not dogma, it is arithmetic. Full report: The Altcoin Graveyard: What Survives and What Goes to Zero -> link in the comments section.

The Altcoin Graveyard: What Survives and What Goes to Zero This was the week most altcoins died. Not corrected. Died. Our May 14 Crypto Trends Chartbook had already flagged the warning: "Bullish Altcoin Momentum Fades." Risk management was the only rational response. That call has now been validated in the most brutal way possible. The data tells a clear story. Our tactical altcoin model has favored Bitcoin over altcoins on 80% of trading days since January 2024. There is no persistent altcoin rally; there never was. What passed for one was largely venture capital overhang and early insiders liquidating into retail demand. Below, we break down the critical developments across the top 50 altcoins we monitor, trend setups, latest news, and the catalysts that matter. The exercise has two equally important goals: identifying the handful of altcoins worth owning, and recognizing the ones that don't make the cut. The latter is arguably more important. Many of these tokens are going to zero. That is not dogma, it is arithmetic. Following our risk management rules may be the difference between losing everything and being positioned to strike at the right moment. Full report, chart book, list of the altcoins that will survive and the ones that will go to zero, etc. in our latest Trading Signals report (link in the comments section).

HYPE is 10x Research subscribers' favorite token by a wide margin. Nearly 70% named it their #1 pick in our May survey. And the price delivered, up 74% in a single month. We've been among HYPE's most consistent bulls. In a market where genuinely compelling tokens are scarce, it has earned its place in our top ten. But a 74% rally demands scrutiny. So we built a valuation model from scratch, 365 days of fee, volume, and user data. What we found gives us pause. Since the October 2025 peak: → Fees down 81% → Revenue per user down 70% → Daily volumes halved from $12B to $5B → Valuation multiple: 10x → 23x (99th percentile, 1-year history) Daily active users have recovered back near 70,000. But monetization hasn't followed. Average fees per user collapsed from $70 to $20. The platform is generating roughly one-third of the fee income per active user compared to its peak. New product launches, oil futures, SpaceX futures, haven't moved the needle on user growth. Hyperliquid appears to be recirculating the same pool of traders rather than expanding its audience. To justify current prices, you need a step-change in activity per user, new user acquisition at scale, or both. We run the numbers on fair value, what it would take to reach $100, and why June 6 is a date every HYPE holder should have circled. Full report for subscribers 👇See report link in the comments section.

This explains why bitcoin fell off a cliff last 30 days and alls why today might see a drop below $60,000….

Bitcoin is down $21,000 in 30 days, and it's not MicroStrategy's fault. When CPI hit 3.8% on May 12, we flagged inflation as a headwind the next day. What followed: ETF holders systematically liquidated BTC exposure. Today's CPI print is the key. Bitcoin needs sub-4.0%. Our model says the market is underestimating inflation. Watch closely.

Bitmine Lost $10 Billion. But Buried Inside the Wreckage Is a Free Call Option Nobody Is Pricing. Few investments have taught so many retail investors so much about NAV premiums, mNAV mechanics, and structural wealth transfers. The tuition was $4.6 billion. The actual losses are $10 billion. Between July 2025 and June 2026, Bitmine raised $19.2 billion across 50 equity issuances, almost entirely through at-the-market offerings, and converted the proceeds into 5,543,872 ETH, equal to 4.6% of the circulating supply. That treasury is now worth $9.1 billion at $1,650 per ETH. Investors are sitting on a $10.1 billion loss, a 52% drawdown on invested capital. Two forces drove it. (1) The first is straightforward: ETH fell by 52% from the company's weighted-average acquisition cost of $3,526. (2) The second is structural. Investors repeatedly paid a premium to the underlying ETH net asset value when buying shares, overpaying by a cumulative $4.6 billion before the asset itself moved a dollar. Both losses arrived together. (!!!!) We have been critical of Ethereum for the last eight months and warned against acquiring treasury exposure at elevated embedded costs. Prices have fallen sharply. Bitmine's losses have ballooned to $10 billion. An Ethereum recovery in the near term looks unlikely. And yet, buried inside a deeply impaired balance sheet, there may be optionality that the current valuation does not begin to capture. ($$$) Sometimes a stock falls far enough that the underlying asset barely matters, what you are buying is pure optionality. That is precisely where Bitmine stands today. Full analysis in our latest report, link in comments.

The Road Nobody Owns: Has Ethereum Already Passed the Point of No Return? We have been bearish on Ethereum and vocal about its structural flaws since at least last October, when we identified it as the easier short of this bear market. At $3,800, there was little reason to own it, a view we published on October 31, 2025, and reiterated in a November CoinDesk interview. The DeFi narrative, we argued, was built on false hope, and the mid-2025 rally was built on little more than Bitmine flows, flows that evaporated once Bitmine's mNAV collapsed to 1.0x and the mechanism for extracting value from retail investors had run its course. Over time, a price and its underlying value cannot remain detached indefinitely. Once the Bitmine flows exhausted themselves, Ethereum had nothing left to hide behind, and prices gravitated back toward the only floor the fundamentals could justify. Three weeks ago, we issued another high-conviction bearish call on ETH. Prices have since fallen by 26% and are now trading below the level at which value has historically emerged. That changes the calculus. Or does it? Prices have now fallen nearly 60% from those October highs, and we have reached a level where the bearish thesis warrants a stress test. This may be one of the rare moments where buying Ethereum makes sense (see also here). Or not? But it may equally mark the beginning of a terminal decline, the point where a cyclical low and a structural break become indistinguishable until it is too late. We revisit Ethereum's value proposition with fresh eyes and attempt to answer the question that now matters most: generational buying opportunity or value trap? Full report, link in bio.

🧵 Bitcoin Weekly: The Market Is Unwinding, But BTC Is Building a Base 1/ BTC dominance slipped below 60% last week,an important signal. Now at 58.1% (↓1.2%) while ETH dominance sits at 9.2% (↑0.5%) Our model still favors BTC over alts, and is just 1.5% away from flipping dominance bullish again 2/ Stablecoins are flashing red 🚨 USDT market cap: $186.9B (↓0.8% WoW), but volume spiked 43% above average USDC market cap: $75.6B (↓0.3% WoW), volume 48% above average Traders are moving back to fiat. Stablecoin minting indicator: 1st percentile. Very negative. 3/ The outflow picture YTD tells the story: ▪️ Stablecoins: -$0.8B ▪️ ETFs: -$2.6B ▪️ BTC Futures: -$6.9B ▪️ MSTR: $13.4B MicroStrategy has been the only notable buyer in 2025. Total YTD crypto outflows: -$2.8B 4/ The MSTR/STRC overhang is real. Markets want to see $1-2B in BTC sales to confirm STRC dividend payments are covered, until then, the uncertainty remains a headwind 5/ But here's what matters for the bull case 👇 FIFA World Cup kicks off in 3 days, a date we flagged as a potential BTC cycle low Data supports BTC carving out a base, with higher prices expected through Q3/Q4 6/ Two major institutional catalysts hit June 8: 🔹 Nasdaq launches CME Crypto Index futures 🔹 Coinbase goes live with CFTC-regulated perpetual crypto futures Regulated derivatives infrastructure is expanding. This matters for the next leg up. More insights -> link in bio for full report.

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Bitcoin's Real Seller Isn't Who You Think After last week's sharp selloff, Bitcoin sits in technically oversold territory, and a brief bounce early this week looks likely. But don't mistake a relief rally for a recovery. The market has spent the past month blaming the wrong suspect. The name everyone keeps citing isn't the one doing the selling.  Inside, we identify exactly who has been selling, why the popular narrative is wrong, the flow data that actually matters, and what comes next. Main data points Sharp crypto market correction with elevated volumes signals liquidations. The Crypto market cap stands at $2.13 trillion, -14.5% lower than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $117 billion, 47% higher than average. Weekly Bitcoin volume was $47.3 billion, 61% higher than average, while Ethereum volume was $23.2 billion, 77% higher than average. Ethereum network fees (0.14 Gwei) are in the 19th percentile, indicating low network usage. Most of the selling is through the spot market, not leveraged traders going short. The Bitcoin funding rate rose by 0.9% this week to 5.7%, placing it in the 38th percentile over the last 12 months. Futures open interest decreased by $-3.5 billion to $21 billion. The Ethereum funding rate decreased by 21.2% this week to -6.6%, which is in the 1st percentile over the last 12 months. Futures open interest decreased by $-1.9 billion to $10.1 billion. Bitcoin's open interest is at the 30th percentile, while Ethereum's is at the 31st percentile. The real sellers aren't who the market thinks, and understanding who they are changes everything about how you position ahead. Full report link in the comments section.

The Clock Is Ticking for Bitcoin - Two Weeks. Two Events. Every report we write asks the same core question: has the regime changed, and if so, what caused it, and what are the implications? Markets are complex; every new data point can alter the trajectory. That was precisely the exercise on May 16, 2026, when we published "Bitcoin Isn't an Inflation Hedge. Here's Why That Distinction Could Cost You." We wrote: "Dangerously in the current environment, Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge; it is a liquidity hedge. It rises when monetary conditions loosen and falls when they tighten. With markets now pricing 45 basis points of Fed tightening, a dramatic reversal from the 2.6 cuts priced in September 2025, the liquidity backdrop has turned materially hostile. Oil prices are up 40% since the conflict in Iran began. CPI has risen from 2.4% to 3.8%. PPI has surged from 2.9% to 6.0%, with more in the pipeline. Bond markets have responded: the 2-year is back above 4.0%, the 10-year has reclaimed 4.5%, the 30-year has breached 5.0%. The last two times this configuration deteriorated, Trump intervened, with tariff rollbacks and a ceasefire announcement. No equivalent backstop exists today. Macro data moves slowly; market attention moves erratically. The hardest thing to predict is not the data itself, but the moment investors decide to care. This week may have been that inflection point. The FOMC's June meeting will likely strip the easing bias from its statement. We are using Bitcoin's 30-day moving average ($78,404) as our stop for long positions and view Ethereum as the cleaner short." That week was the inflection point. Bitcoin fell 23% from our stop. Ethereum, our preferred short, fell 30%. Many traders were surprised. Only those with the right framework have seen this coming. Below, we break down what is truly driving markets and what to expect over the next two weeks and beyond. Link in the comments section to our latest, must-read, report.

ETH sub $1,700… getting close to FTX levels …update.10xresearch.com/p/hed…

Bitcoin's Gravitational Centre: A Pattern Precise Enough to Scare You There is a pattern in Bitcoin's price history precise enough to project cycle peaks and troughs to within days, not weeks, not months, across a decade of the most chaotic asset ever created. It has called every major turning point. It carries a specific target for the cycle low. It carries a specific date. And it raises a question that is either unsettling or extraordinary, depending on how seriously you take it: Did Satoshi design this deliberately? It might have not been a coincidence when and how the Bitcoin whitepaper was released.. The date is of great historical importance. Pattern analysis has identified the precise moments when Bitcoin peaks and bottoms, and the accuracy is difficult to dismiss. What is harder to explain is that these mathematical inflection points consistently overlap with something older and less quantifiable: seasonal forces that predate markets, central banks, and the internet by millennia. Whether the math drives the pattern or merely rhymes with it, the result is the same. We can calculate the expected timing of this cycle's low, and project the precise target for the next bull market peak. The full analysis, the pattern, the targets, the date, and why a 5,000-year-old calendar may be the most important chart in crypto, is inside.

Amid the Bitcoin Crash, Our Two Top Picks Returned 29% and 16% There is a stark contrast between the cryptocurrencies dominating the negative news flow and heavy losses and those quietly generating strong returns in the background. Bitcoin entered a bearish trend and as pointed out last week, two tokens we flagged defied the selloff entirely. Stellar (XLM) and Jito (JTO) returned 29% and 16% respectively, against a -13% decline in Bitcoin. Both were called out in last week's report as carrying "idiosyncratic upside momentum driven by project-specific catalysts", and they delivered. Between mid-March and mid-May, our Trading Signals crypto equities model generated 14 signals. 12 of the 14 showed positive returns; 10 are fully closed. Across closed trades, the average return was 28.8%. This is precisely what the 10x Model Portfolio is built to capture. Since its launch on April 9, 2026, Bitcoin is down -9%. The portfolio is up 23.5%. That's a 32.5% outperformance in one of the more challenging stretches the market has seen. Knowing where the catalysts are and positioning ahead of them is what separates token selection from index exposure. Traders who followed our framework and preferred positions are navigating this selloff from a position of strength, while many others are under pressure. That composure matters: the next decision is best made with a clear head, not under duress. Despite the challenges that Bitcoin/Ethereum are facing, there are plenty of opportunities with real catalysts as we show below as this week's report is another map of where those catalysts are unfolding. Link to the full report, including 50 charts, flagged the "top charts" with catalysts...this is your idea machine booklet... every week...

Fun fact: SpaceX IPO is larger than: BTC ETH BNB XRP SOL combined....

Every Bitcoin Bull Market Has a Preacher. This One Has Run Out of Sermons. But a New One Is Coming. Some have raised concerns that quantum computing poses an existential threat to Bitcoin, and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and US software ETFs suggests both have been caught in the same AI-driven sentiment swings. But Bitcoin's latest leg lower is better explained by macro forces than AI-related swings. In addition, the market is digesting MicroStrategy's shift from accumulation to (expected) selective selling, a few coins here and there, not a forced liquidation event, with the latest $2 million selling a test run. That distinction matters. Managed selling is an overhang, not a crisis, and understanding the difference is part of understanding when this bear market ends. MicroStrategy holds 843,706 BTC against combined debt and preferred stock obligations of approximately $22.2 billion. That implies an equity (worth) zero level of roughly $26,000 per Bitcoin, the price at which the BTC reserve no longer covers liabilities, and equity holders are wiped out. In a prolonged bear market, that threshold is not inconceivable, and institutional risk managers know exactly where it is. Neither the quantum computing narrative nor MicroStrategy's sales are the real drivers of this Bitcoin market. Both are noise. Below, we explain what investors should be watching and what the signal looks like when you zoom out. This is still a bottom formation process, but a new bull market will eventually emerge, we explain the exact (single) data point matters. Let dive in, full report link below in the comments section.