Fmr CEO of political risk consultancy @pozieresconsult now Family Office focused on frontier markets. Stand by none of my market calls but all of my book reco’s

Joined March 2009
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Sorry but anyone who thought the direction of travel was anywhere but this way, deserves their bags.
AMD CEO LISA SU HELD A MINI PC ON STAGE THAT RUNS A 235B MODEL AND REPLACES YOUR $440/MONTH AI STACK amd's ryzen ai max 395 is the first x86 chip that runs a 200 billion parameter model on one piece of silicon. cpu and gpu share 128gb of unified memory, no separate graphics card needed the gmktec evo-x2 runs qwen3 235b fully, deepseek v3 comfortably and llama 3.3 70b with headroom. on linux you get 110gb of usable vram out of 128gb amd claimed the chip beat an nvidia rtx 5080 by more than 3x on deepseek r1 inference. a lunchbox sized pc outrunning a $1,000 discrete gpu on a real ai workload a heavy ai user pays $200 for claude code max, $200 for chatgpt pro, $20 for cursor and $20 for gemini. that's $5,280 a year and the box pays itself off in 9 to 10 months install ollama, pull the model, point claude code at localhost. same interface, nothing leaves the machine, nothing costs per request bookmark this and read the article below
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I know I’m not a US citizen but there are some monuments around the world that simply transcend, that stand for what many consider to be universal values like freedom & liberty, it’s in that vein that I say this carnival ode to idiocracy is an utterly depressing besmirchment.
Not just celebrating history, making it. 🇺🇸
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At some point it’s also going to be raised that many of the sanctions provisions are within the purview of Congress not Trump & there’s no way he has the votes to change ISA right now.
Mahmoud Nabavian, Deputy Chairman of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament, sharply criticized the proposed agreement with the United States: The United States has told the Iranian side that it will secure a $300 billion reconstruction budget for the country from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. an amount that, it is clear, will not be provided. If the United States later claims that it asked Saudi Arabia to pay but they refused, what will you do? When the text of the agreement states that expenditures must be carried out with the consent of both parties, it means the United States will also have a say in how and where the money is spent. So if America says this money should not be allocated to a particular area because it might reach the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), what will you do then? I assure you that no real funds will enter the country, nor will you have full authority to independently decide where these funds are spent. According to the text of the agreement, we will not have the right to rebuild our nuclear program, and the United States will not lift any sanctions. In light of the agreement’s text, the Parliament’s plan concerning the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been rendered useless. Freeing Iran’s assets means that cash must actually reach us, as it did during the Rouhani administration (JCPOA). According to the text of the agreement, we will become a colony of the United States.
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This take is looking more and more likely as the Fox News tone shifts dramatically this weekend.
Replying to @matcasey
they'll believe whatever he tells them
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Perfect scenario for Tehran, get financial relief while still maintaining leverage by sending the odd drone over Hormuz to ensure ships are discouraged from going back into the strait for fear of being trapped again (or worse).
Iran says a US MoU could be signed remotely within days as hardliners attack the draft, Washington ties relief to nuclear dismantlement, and Hormuz stays tense after CENTCOM said it downed drones targeting shipping.
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Fox out trying to sell $200B in ‘reconstruction’ as beneficial, a big signpost as to what’s in the deal.
🚨 BREAKING: THE WHITE HOUSE JUST BRIEFED US ON NEW DETAILS ON TRUMP’S IRAN DEAL… AND WOW! 🚨 WH Sources say Iran is READY TO SIGN, the TERMS are SET— now they’re negotiating a PLACE 🔥 THE DEAL? Iran is handing over the NUCLEAR DUST 🔥
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This is starting to sound coordinated.
ראש ממשלת פקיסטן, שהבאז שריף: "אנחנו יכולים לאשר כי הושג נוסח סופי ומוסכם של הסכם השלום, וכי פקיסטן פועלת כעת בשיתוף פעולה הדוק עם שני הצדדים כדי להשלים את הצעדים הבאים. השלום מעולם לא היה קרוב יותר מכפי שהוא כעת."
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It would be totally rational for Iran to sign an MOU that provided access to funds even if it sold as ‘humanitarian’ in exchange for a temporary opening of Hormuz, they could make transit a risky for shippers, while buying even more time as oil inventories continue to drop.
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Not a chance Trump signs up to this. I can imagine Iran exaggerating in state media what they’ve secured but how do they do that when they add that it must be ratified by the UN?
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's @MehrnewsCom out with details of "the 14-point draft" of the MOU, as per "a source close to the Iranian negotiating team:" ▪️Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. ▪️America's commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. ▪️Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days ▪️America's commitment to withdrawing its forces from around Iran ▪️Reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days with Iranian arrangements ▪️Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and derivatives and full access for Iran to its financial resources. ▪️The need for the United States and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion. ▪️60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary, secondary, US sanctions and resolutions of the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency ▪️Reiterating Iran's commitment in the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons ▪️During the negotiations, the United States has committed not to increase its forces in the region and will not impose new sanctions. ▪️Release $24 billion in blocked Iranian funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the negotiations begin. ▪️Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement. ▪️The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution. ▪️The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of Iran's oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement will be made solely on the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and the Iranian economic reconstruction program. Discussions about Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda. "As the Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced, this text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran."
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It’s been quite a show…the third act requires a magic trick, how to hide the fact that Iran will be cashing huge checks!
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Blow-by-blow account from the IRGC-linked @FarsNews_Agency of how we got to this point: ▫️At the same time as the US tactically retreats from new additions to the draft agreement, Donald Trump is trying to create a narrative of "Iran's surrender in the face of bombing" by increasing his threatening tone on social media; a narrative that is far from the reality on the ground of the negotiations. ▫️According to information from our correspondent, about two weeks ago, the text of the draft MOU between the negotiating teams was almost finalized and was only awaiting final approval in Tehran and Washington. However, during this review, Trump once again demanded several new details be added, contrary to the agreement of the American negotiators who had accepted the Iranian draft. In response, Iran announced that it would not review the new text and practically did not respond to the US. ▫️After that, scattered tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, in southern Iran, and the attack on Dahiyeh, practically silenced the negotiation file. ▫️But since Wednesday, the Qatari team entered the arena through mediation and announced the US withdrawal from the new additional clauses; that is, a return to the original text that was still awaiting final approval in Iran. ▫️At the same time as this noticeable US withdrawal, Trump launched a media campaign and threatening rhetoric to suggest that Iran has backed down under the pressure of bombing. But the reality is that up to this point, not only has Iran not given a final response, but it is the US that has returned to its previous demand. ▫️Of course, it seems that given that the US has accepted the text proposed by Iran, there is now a possibility of re-examining this text.
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It’s no longer conspiratorial or fringe to say that the Epstein story re-emerging is very bad news for Iran.
‼️ This is Trump’s Watergate Moment. For months the Vice President, White House Chief of Staff, Pam Bondi, Todd Blanche, Kash Patel and other top officials colluded in the Situation Room to break the law and BURY the Epstein investigation. This is what went down ⬇️
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Not sure what to make of this after so many threats gone by, but I cannot imagine it will move the Iranians, if anything, yet another empty threat would merely embolden them surely. If he has finally lost patience then we’re entering a new phase.
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One Thousand and One Nights…
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei says Tehran needs to re-assess following overnight clashes when asked about talks with the U.S.
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I suppose the next big question is how in the world does Trump intend on releasing billions of dollars to Iran without it looking like he’s releasing billions of dollars to Iran. How is he going to sell it to Fox News viewers?
Trump has told Netanyahu that he believes Iran and the U.S. are nearing an agreement on a framework to bring the sides to the table for negotiations for a longer-term deal. -NYT
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Starting to wonder if Trump is suffering from the dictators curse of not always being told the entire truth by aides, I wonder if he actually believes a deal is ‘very close’ & the Iranians are ‘desperate’.
TRUMP URGES NETANYAHU NOT TO RETALIATE AGAINST IRAN, SAYS PEACE DEAL 'VERY CLOSE'
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The most cynical & dark concern has to be that Iran responds in a proportionate manner but that some Israeli interceptors prove momentarily & uncharacteristically ineffective.
Netanyahu convening a security session Sunday evening with Defense Minister Katz and senior officials over Lebanon developments and reported Iranian threats.
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This demonstrates just how unserious negotiations have been to this point. Witkoff & Kushmer hitting the books for the weekend probably isn’t quite enough for the Iranians to take it as a sign of genuine openness to bonafide negotiations.
🇺🇸🇮🇷☢️Scoop: President Trump's envoys Witkoff & Kushner traveled to the national lab in Oak Ridge, Tennessee on Thursday for consultations with a new team of experts ahead of potential nuclear negotiations with Iran. @demarest_colin & I write for @axios axios.com/2026/06/05/iran-oa…
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Forget the Iran Jawbone, I’m waiting for the ‘Erdoğanomics’ tweet from Trump telling Warsh to cut!
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Excellent piece. I suspect we’ll get at least one more proposal from Trump this weekend that tries to test the credulity of his supporters re: releasing funds, perhaps by leading with another “they’ve agreed to a deal” proclamation, likely another fade.
In my latest on Iran Analytica I explain why #Iran increasingly sees the ceasefire as a trap, how it is trying to maintain its leverage vis-à-vis Trump, and what that means for the prospects of a deal irananalytica.org/p/the-ceas…
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