My co-authors and I have written a new Economic Commentary on “The (Re)Anchoring of US Firms’ Inflation Expectations.” Link: clefed.org/4nYbBiQ Alex Cline, Christian Garciga, @timo_reinelt, and Rob Rich

Check out our new paper on the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Using new evidence, we reassess its economic impact and draw lessons that remain highly relevant in today's trade policy debate

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP21522 The Price of Protection: Tariff Incidence and Import Collapse under the Infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Kris Mitchener @SantaClaraUniv, Mathieu Pedemonte @the_IDB ow.ly/NrTA50Z33B3 #CEPR_EH #CEPR_ITRE

Super interesting! "Consumers’ Attention to Monetary Policy: The Importance of Having 'Skin in the Game' ", by Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, James Mitchell, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Taylor Shiroff. "Using a five-year survey of over 170,000 US consumers, we provide the first direct measure of attention to monetary policy and show that the data strongly support the predictions of a rational inattention model. First, attention is incentive-driven: consumers with “skin in the game”—those planning major purchases like homes or cars—are significantly more attentive to monetary policy news. Second, attention varies systematically with interest rate volatility and news supply, exhibiting cyclical patterns around FOMC meetings. Third, marginal effects of volatility and news supply decline with “skin in the game,” implying external factors primarily affect low skin-in-the-game consumers. These findings imply that when communication is costly and attention is endogenous, central banks should target communication efforts toward consumers who bear the largest welfare losses from information frictions. This targeted communication approach increases aggregate attention to monetary policy, leading to an amplified response of consumption to interest rate changes." ecb.europa.eu/press/conferen…

Constructing a novel measure of one-year-ahead exchange rate forecasts and nowcasts for non-financial firms, from Martha Elena Delgado Rojas, @juanherreno, @mahofste, and @mathpedemonte nber.org/papers/w35175

So happy to see my paper published at AEJ: Macro! It shows that simple autoregressive foresting rules and myopia, embedded in a New Keynesian framework, help the model match key features of consensus inflationexpectations and US macro data.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Gustavo de Souza and André Victor Luduvice on Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…

Interested in postpandemic inflation and wage growth heterogeneity? Check out our Commentary written with Anaya Truss-Williams and C. J. Walker. As in previous ECs, we provide a GitHub repo with annotated codes: tinyurl.com/4mytktmh More links at: avdluduvice.com/policy

Forthcoming in the AER: "Managers and Public Hospital Performance" by Pablo Muñoz and Cristóbal Otero. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…

Monetary policy shocks affect more cities with low income per capita, both in prices and income. Just Accepted new paper by Juan Herreño Bluesky: zurl.co/5GY4o and Mathieu Pedemonte @mathpedemonte

Why have different surveys of inflation expectations recently shown such different numbers for U.S. consumer inflation expectations? In a new @ClevelandFed Economic Commentary with my co-authors @InaHajdini , Ph.D., Ed Knotek, @JohnCLeer, @mathpedemonte, Damjan Pfajfar and Taylor Shiroff, we provide one answer: part of the gap comes from the political makeup of the different survey samples. Inflation expectations differ sharply by party -- in April 2025, Democrats in the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC) expected inflation over 10 percentage points higher than Republicans. When we reweight surveys to also match the U.S. population’s actual party affiliation, the gaps across surveys shrink, while the average inflation expectation in the MSC is lower by about 2 percentage points for April 2025, clevelandfed.org/people/prof… #inflation #inflationexpectations

New paper with @InaHajdini, Saten, Samreen, and Jordan. Using an RCT, we show that firms communicate within their IO network, influencing connected firms’ expectations, uncertainty and actions. We then illustrate the relevance for shock transmission and inflation in a NK model

Just Accepted new paper, “Multi-establishment Firms, Pricing and the Propagation of Local Shocks: Evidence from US Retail” by Ezequiel García-Lembergman zurl.co/i4Ggq

In a revised working paper, researchers study how #MonetaryPolicy communications associated with increasing the federal funds rate causally affect consumers' inflation expectations in real time. See their findings: clefed.org/3FGzfyx

Wondering about the effect of tariffs on inflation? Tariffs are like supply shocks --> Inflation is a supply phenomenon.

Very interesting work of @avdluduvice and coauthors at @ClevFedResearch

In a new WP w. Klaus Abberger, @FunkAnneKathrin, @M_L_a_m_l_a, and Stefanie Siegrist we examine how firms’ #inflation #expectations affect their #prices and #wages sarah-lein.ch/IEPT.pdf. We find that 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 are relevant:1/4

The Research Department at the Cleveland Fed seeks new or experienced economists with research interests in inflation, macroeconomics, microeconomics, and banking and finance. Apply today: bit.ly/3UyWajx #economics #inflation #macro #micro #banking #nowhiring