Follow the money ▫️youtube.com/@maxinomics ▫️by @phlndrws & @morningbrew
Joined June 2021
- Tweets 1,205
- Following 183
- Followers 27,762
- Likes 3,524
302 Photos and videos
Maxinomics retweeted
14h
Loved the railroad/Monopoly analogy in this one. Made a custom card to visualize it.
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Did the 800lb gorilla finally wake up
Jun 12
I did something I never thought I would, I reached out to Siri instead of ChatGPT and honestly it was better and gave me an excellent output with less text which was to the point 🤯
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Quick glance around the internet seems to confirm, Siri has joined the party
iOS 27
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Jun 12
You could make a lot of money counting cars if you had access to one of the 200 satellites that could do it
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Jun 11
The SpaceX valuation fight has two sides, and one of them is about to be spectacularly wrong
Bears: 100x revenue is insane
Bulls: near-monopoly on launch two businesses that grow forever
Both have a point, both can't be right
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Jun 9
It will be nearly impossible for inflation to keep climbing if oil continues to fall
Sets up an interesting psychology for consumers and investors if gas/diesel do what looks most likely: round trip to their pre-war price
Jun 8
The global oil system has offset almost 90% of Hormuz barrels
17.5 mmb/d has been offset with bypass pipelines, reduced Chinese imports, increased US export, SPR releases & demand destruction
#Oil #Hormuz #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #DemandDestruction #EnergySecurity #Commodities
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Jun 8
There are only a handful of perfect orbits above Earth. Once they're claimed, they're gone for good
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Jun 5
Sets up the S&P 500 to potentially be forced buyers down the road at a higher valuation and much larger percent of the index
Rules are rules but interesting setup for investors and traders who will absolutely front run inclusion if it become obvious SpaceX hit the requirements
Jun 4
SHOCKER: S&P 500 will NOT fast track SpaceX. So it will take AT LEAST a year, probably more. This is wild considering every other big boy index is 5-15 days. This could create significant return dispersion bt 'passive' indexes. Choose wisely.
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Jun 5
In a bit of irony, this is exactly what happened to Tesla in 2020. As soon as it was clear they had four quarters of profit and SPX would be going against it's own rules to not include them the stock was full bid, it tripled over the five up to the add date
Granted this was stimmy/covid era so wasn't purely inclusion but was a major factor
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Maxinomics retweeted
Jun 4
I have no idea if the valuation makes sense, neither does anyone else. There are valid points on either side
What would happen if SpaceX IPO'ed at $400bil tomorrow? That's one way to look at this
I find it hard to imagine it wouldn't be bid up aggressively, ultimately finding a stopping point somewhere around the IPO price
And that is the job of those selling the IPO. You have a fiduciary responsibility to not undershoot what the market will accept
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Jun 4
SpaceX doesn’t sell rockets. Rockets are the factory
Launch evolved from the core product to an operating expense for building and running whatever products SpaceX wants to put into orbit. Starlink already proved the model works
If orbital data centers prove to work the way many smart people are suggesting, SpaceX gets the highest-margin compute that exists… defended by a launch monopoly no one can match
That's how you get to this valuation and that's why it's hard for a lot of people to swallow. What you're buying is a call option on orbital data centers working, not revenue generated from launch or even Starlink
Jun 4
GOLDMAN SEES SPACEX AI REVENUE EXPLODING TO $322B BY 2030
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B.
AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.
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Jun 4
I have no idea if the valuation makes sense, neither does anyone else. There are valid points on either side
What would happen if SpaceX IPO'ed at $400bil tomorrow? That's one way to look at this
I find it hard to imagine it wouldn't be bid up aggressively, ultimately finding a stopping point somewhere around the IPO price
And that is the job of those selling the IPO. You have a fiduciary responsibility to not undershoot what the market will accept
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Jun 4
America is a gas island. It's sitting on the cheapest energy on earth and physically can't ship most of it out
So it stays here, cheap and stable, quietly rewriting the math on every factory anyone wants to build
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Jun 2
Mine → smelter → factory → your door
Every pipe in the American economy is full right now
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Jun 1
The most important signal in America isn't the Fed, the stock market, or jobs numbers. It's a flatbed truck
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