Episode 15 STATE OF THE MARKET is now LIVE đ
In Episode 15 of Deal Flow Friday, I sat down with
@trionproperties Managing Partners
@maxsharkansky and Mitch Paskover to break down how 2025 has unfolded so far, and whatâs ahead.
On capital markets: âRates are still the wild card, but I stand by my prediction of 3â4 cuts this year... The U.S. is behind the curve while other central banks are already cutting.â
On tariffs & supply: âTariffs are hurting confidence more than theyâre driving prices up. Thatâs recessionary, not inflationary... Construction costs are high, and tariffs are the nail in the coffin for new supply. Thatâs good for existing multifamily owners.â
On distress & investment strategy: âWeâre underwriting deals at or below loan basis. But lenders still arenât ready to take the haircut... Youâre starting to see distress, but mostly in geographies like Atlanta and Charlotte, itâs more situational than widespread.â
On investor sentiment: âThe smart LPs are moving now, because the downside risk is limited and the upside optionality is real... You donât need a screaming IRR if youâre buying at a 6.25% cap with sub-5% debt.â
On where Trion is buying: âWeâre long the West Coast. Portland and NorCal are undersupplied and turning the corner.â
And where Trion is NOT buying: âThe Midwest had its moment, but itâs overheated. When your dentist asks about Columbus, itâs time to get out.â
This episode is a raw, unfiltered view of the current market, where deals are getting stuck, where the next opportunities are, and what weâre actually doing with our own capital right now.
đ Episode 15 is live now.