Are these unknown unknowns or known unknowns?
We know that the intended consequence of rate increases is demand destruction which typically leads to job loss and/or recession, so if there are “surprises” such as bank failures or bankruptcy of non-bank financial institutions those would qualify as known knowns or known unknowns, not unknown unknowns.
And that’s my tongue twister this beautiful Friday morning! ☀️
This was a revealing comment, no?
"Ultimately, this may be decided by factors that are outside our control, at the end of the day."