Addressed investors at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2026. Our key messages at the Fireside Chat on “Türkiye’s New Route to Financial Stability.”
1/ We live in a shock-prone world and a tough neighbourhood. Shocks may slow the pace of the program’s delivery, but they are unlikely to change the direction of travel.
2/ On inflation: Our commitment to the disinflation program is firm. Even in a year of major shocks, inflation is expected to continue falling, and to end the year in the mid-twenties.
3/ On fiscal performance: Our track record speaks for itself. Over the past 23 years, Türkiye’s average budget deficit has been 2.6% of GDP. We reduced the deficit from 5.1% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2025 through spending controls, the fight against informality, stronger tax compliance, and improvements in audit and revenue collection. Even after deploying fiscal space to cushion higher oil prices through the sliding-scale mechanism, we remain on track to meet our 2026 target and to keep the deficit below 3% of GDP over the medium term.
4/ On the lira: We do not target a specific level. Confidence in the lira has strengthened significantly since the program began. This reflects a tight monetary stance, effective macroprudential measures, and an FX reserve position that is fundamentally stronger than in previous episodes of volatility.
5/ On the current account: High energy prices are likely to widen the deficit, but the impact remains manageable. Softening domestic demand and resilient exports are likely to limit the fallout from the war. Exports are supported by supply-chain reconfiguration, the EUR/USD parity, and higher value-added production. We expect the current account deficit to be around 3% of GDP, below its long-term average.
6/ On not wasting the crisis: To attract FDI, talent, and capital, we have introduced a comprehensive framework. It includes:
- Halving corporate tax rate for manufacturers to 12.5%.
- A full tax exemption on services exports, including software, video gaming, medical tourism, education, engineering, and design.
- Zero corporate tax on transit trade.
- A new regional headquarters regime for multinationals, offering a 20 year of corporate tax exemption and no income tax on salaries up to four to six times the minimum wage.
- The world’s longest non-dom regime, running for 20 years, with foreign-source income untaxed, inheritance tax at 1%, and only Turkish-source earnings taxed.
- A new home for start-ups: Fully digital company formation, tax-efficient ESOPs, venture capital tools, and a flagship hub at Atatürk Airport-Terminal İstanbul.
- A One-Stop Shop under the Presidential Investment and Finance Office for company formation, permits, tax, land, and incentives.
- An asset repatriation framework allowing cash, gold, and securities to be declared under a clear, FATF-aligned regime with varying tax rates based on asset type and holding period.