Macro-first analyst. Trade commodities & spot FX. π¨π¦β‘οΈπΊπΈ
Joined December 2020
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Pinned Tweet
21 Jun 2021
The Fed has no way out of the trickiest policy environment since the '70s.
Let's say #inflation levels off around 2.5-4%
What's next?
I can't find a realistic outcome where #gold doesn't gain significant purchasing power vs. stocks and bonds.
Even if the Fed goes "Volcker."
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15 Jun 2022
Global recession global inflation = no monetary stimmy.
Fixed income β
Equities β
Next up: real estate markets
15 Jun 2022
0.0
Sooooooo close.
I bet we are there on the next ATL FED update
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Miles retweeted
13 Jun 2022
bond markets are breaking
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3 Jun 2022
Liquidity = king... & evaporating at the moment:
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25 May 2022
Hmmmmm, you donβt say.
Great chart:
24 May 2022
Global recession is coming. China (black), Germany (blue) & Japan (pink) are the world's biggest exporters. New export orders in their manufacturing PMIs are tumbling, signaling weak global demand. The US (red) was an outlier, but today's data show it starting to fall as well...
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Miles retweeted
15 May 2022
There's a decent case to be made that the market already priced in peak tightening expectations and will now start focusing more on economic deterioration as it begins showing up in the data.
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13 May 2022
DXY closes the week well above 2017 2020 highs:
Emerging markets drowning...
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6 May 2022
Welcome to the danger zone! Exciting times.
If benchmark rates don't consolidate/peak at these levels - high probability something breaks in Q3/Q4.
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6 May 2022
- Global corporate debt
- The US consumer
- Non-bank financials
- Euro-area in general
- EM sovereigns
^ All seem like fair catalysts ^
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Miles retweeted
5 May 2022
There have been 2 days in the past 25 years when S&P 500 futures were down 3% and 10-year Treasury futures down 1%:
π October 9, 2008
π March 18, 2020
Someone is blowing up, and this is forced liquidation.
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4 May 2022
Recall chart when the Fed hikes 50bps:
Flattened curve & deeply negative real rates = 0% FOMC credibility.
Miles retweeted
6 Apr 2022
Often forgotten:
People would have to genuinely prefer EUROS to see a βcrashβ on the DXY chart.
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Miles retweeted
4 Apr 2022
Imagine being the guy trying to raise rates into this.
He had a clean exit when things were smooth, but then came back for re-nomination.
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Miles retweeted
1 Apr 2022
We are approaching a dangerous inflection point for the economy.
30% of the Treasury curve is now inverted.
Beware that 5 other spreads are less than 20bps from turning negative.
That would the take overall calculation to 62%.
πππ
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Miles retweeted
29 Mar 2022
The 10y/2y curve is now less than 7 basis points away from inverting
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Miles retweeted
3 Mar 2022
Not every recession is led by a 50% rise in crude.
But every 50% rise in crude has led a recession.
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Miles retweeted
26 Jan 2022
Dovish surprise from the Bank of Canada -- almost everyone saw a rate hike today, none forthcoming. The Fed next?
#RosenbergResearch #TheFed #Inflation
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24 Jan 2022
Russell 2000: ATH to -19%, real quick...
Treasuries & the DXY aren't sending a "buy the dip" vibe to open the week either. $RUT
"Hawkish" Fed about to tone it down a notch?
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Miles retweeted
10 Dec 2021
10-year real yield now officially at its lowest level since the 40s.
None of us own enough tangible assets.
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10 Nov 2021
HOT! π₯
β¦ The result of central planning decisions, not a virus.
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