Welcome to MPA Macro, an independent research advisory service focused on global macroeconomics and monetary policy.
Joined September 2015
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"The shape of the yield curve is going to continue to look less smooth because people are trying to balance the uncertainty of inflation, a new Fed chair, possible disinflation from AI and a much friendlier bank regulatory environment." @macroderek
americanbanker.com/news/high…
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As time passes, Warsh's influence may grow by setting the FOMC's meeting agenda and putting his "thumb on the scale" over which economic issues and monetary policy issues get prioritized by central bankers, says @macroderek.
@SPGlobal @BrianJScheid
spglobal.com/market-intellig…
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"Rather than building a case for rate cuts, Warsh will now have to spend his energy fending off growing pressure to tighten policy, or at least hold, from colleagues and the public alike," says @macroderek.
Kevin Warsh faces a new challenge as Fed chief: How to restrain a sudden shift in expectations for higher rates as fellow policymakers warn that inflation is back bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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"It sounds like the White House is giving itself an offramp in advance, because we’re not going to get a rate cut in June. This creates breathing room for Warsh to find his footing in his first few months as chair."
@macroderek @MarketWatch
May 19
Trump says he’ll let Warsh ‘do what he wants to do’ with interest rates. It’s a remark that Fed watchers have been bracing for. trib.al/QqdU0pe
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Our latest Fed call. Let us know if you'd like to discuss.
May 9
You're right. I missed that. My chart should look like this with that overlooked information.
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“This is definitely a sea change from previous transitions,” shares @macroderek in the latest from @MarketWatch.
DM to get our full take.
May 13
Warsh confirmed as Fed chair by Senate. Here are 5 tests he’ll face on day one. trib.al/hWaIF0r
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The story over the Fed’s independence — the belief that the U.S. central bank sets interest rates and makes monetary-policy decisions based on economic data and not Washington political pressure — might still be "in the first chapter," says @macroderek. Read the full piece below.
May 10
Powell’s legacy as Fed chair is fighting inflation and Trump. He may lose the battle against both. trib.al/4LWRH2F
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"These swap lines are missing pieces of the puzzle."
@macroderek in the latest from @TheNationalNews.
May 10
What are currency swap lines and how do they work? thenationalnews.com/business…
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"The opposition against the easing bias was likely broader than just [Hammack, Logan and Kashkari]. But the question is, when will the dam break on inflation expectations? Inflation has been above their 2% target for a while now." @macroderek @CNN cnn.com/2026/05/07/economy/f…
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Monetary Policy Analytics, Inc. retweeted
2 Dec 2025
We have long assumed that Powell will remain on the Fed board after stepping down as its chief as a buffer against Trump's efforts to exert control at the central bank.
@Reuters
reuters.com/world/us/trump-s…
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"Powell's presser will focus on uncertainty remaining high, while declining to provide much forward guidance except to refer to the Fed's inflation and employment mandates," predicts @macroderek.
@AmerBanker @mvol4ok
"The Fed is likely to approach the coming quarters with a bias toward caution, balancing still-elevated inflation against a gradually softening growth backdrop," said Christopher Hodge, chief economist at Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking.
nationalmortgagenews.com/new…
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Monetary policy outcomes depend importantly on how the economy evolves over the next few quarters. We discuss a few scenarios to show how the Fed outlook may shift.
Message us to learn more.
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"I am unsure it meets Powell’s 'finality' precondition to
leave the Fed. After all, what’s to stop a probe from coming up again, once the White House gets Warsh confirmed? At that point, Tillis and Powell would have lost leverage." @macroderek
Apr 24
DOJ Drops Powell Probe, Smoothing Path for Warsh to Lead Fed (1) news.bgov.com/bloomberg-gove…
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"Warsh would like Treasury and the Fed to communicate more clearly to each other their respective plans" over Treasury debt issuance, and to better coordinate their respective positions, says @macroderek.
Fed chair pick Warsh makes case for smaller Fed holdings in hearing reut.rs/4dWglT4 reut.rs/4dWglT4
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Apr 20
Kevin Warsh: Trump’s next fall guy at the Fed? ft.trib.al/h34LK25
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"In the next few months, the reality on the ground is inflation is going to be really high. Do you really want one of your guys in place to be the fall guy for keeping rates high?"
@macroderek in latest from @Reuters @annsaphir.
reuters.com/business/fed-lea…
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"People will look at Powell not just for economic but for moral leadership," says @macroderek.
Read the latest from @senoj_erialc @FinancialTimes ft.com/content/07476cf0-7dbf…
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Fed officials "really don’t want to see inflation expectations rise," said @macroderek. "The problem is, they don’t know how close to the edge they are."
Mar 29
Policymakers suggest interest rates could go up or down. The most probable path may be no move at all. on.wsj.com/4uVCkzo
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"The war in Iran certainly adds insult to injury on the inflation front, given poor inflation performance and the trauma of high inflation the last few years [...] However, markets were already jumpy." @macroderek
spglobal.com/market-intellig…
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"The backdrop now “does remind me of 2007-2008, when you did have cracks in the financial system."
@macroderek
Mar 19
The bond market is flashing a signal not seen since before the 2008 crisis trib.al/5twl2Oc
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