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Derek Tang retweeted
As time passes, Warsh's influence may grow by setting the FOMC's meeting agenda and putting his "thumb on the scale" over which economic issues and monetary policy issues get prioritized by central bankers, says @macroderek.
@SPGlobal @BrianJScheid
spglobal.com/market-intellig…
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Derek Tang retweeted
"Rather than building a case for rate cuts, Warsh will now have to spend his energy fending off growing pressure to tighten policy, or at least hold, from colleagues and the public alike," says @macroderek.
Kevin Warsh faces a new challenge as Fed chief: How to restrain a sudden shift in expectations for higher rates as fellow policymakers warn that inflation is back bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Derek Tang retweeted
"It sounds like the White House is giving itself an offramp in advance, because we’re not going to get a rate cut in June. This creates breathing room for Warsh to find his footing in his first few months as chair."
@macroderek @MarketWatch
May 19
Trump says he’ll let Warsh ‘do what he wants to do’ with interest rates. It’s a remark that Fed watchers have been bracing for. trib.al/QqdU0pe
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Derek Tang retweeted
“This is definitely a sea change from previous transitions,” shares @macroderek in the latest from @MarketWatch.
DM to get our full take.
May 13
Warsh confirmed as Fed chair by Senate. Here are 5 tests he’ll face on day one. trib.al/hWaIF0r
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Derek Tang retweeted
"These swap lines are missing pieces of the puzzle."
@macroderek in the latest from @TheNationalNews.
May 10
What are currency swap lines and how do they work? thenationalnews.com/business…
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Derek Tang retweeted
The story over the Fed’s independence — the belief that the U.S. central bank sets interest rates and makes monetary-policy decisions based on economic data and not Washington political pressure — might still be "in the first chapter," says @macroderek. Read the full piece below.
May 10
Powell’s legacy as Fed chair is fighting inflation and Trump. He may lose the battle against both. trib.al/4LWRH2F
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Derek Tang retweeted
"The opposition against the easing bias was likely broader than just [Hammack, Logan and Kashkari]. But the question is, when will the dam break on inflation expectations? Inflation has been above their 2% target for a while now." @macroderek @CNN cnn.com/2026/05/07/economy/f…
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Derek Tang retweeted
2 Dec 2025
We have long assumed that Powell will remain on the Fed board after stepping down as its chief as a buffer against Trump's efforts to exert control at the central bank.
@Reuters
reuters.com/world/us/trump-s…
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Derek Tang retweeted
@macroderek expects the impact of energy shortages to eventually make its way to American shores. "The US is insulated, but not fully. So you can see the shortages beginning in Asia and they're going to move to Europe, and eventually this corner of the world as well."
Apr 27
Fed meeting: Iran war and Powell future add to uncertain outlook thenationalnews.com/business…
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7 Feb 2023
Ahead of Powell's testimony and the Fed's leadership role in the upcoming BIS meetings in Hong Kong, I am pleased to share my commentary in @barronsonline on sticking points of the Fed's role in US foreign policy: barrons.com/articles/the-fed…
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Apr 20
wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-…
FOMC "unlikely to approve" swap lines for UAE, per @davidscloud @NickTimiraos @ajsaeedy , citing unnamed officials.
Treasury ESF is alternative (e.g., Argentina).
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Derek Tang retweeted
"People will look at Powell not just for economic but for moral leadership," says @macroderek.
Read the latest from @senoj_erialc @FinancialTimes ft.com/content/07476cf0-7dbf…
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7 May 2025
We told clients mid-Apr Powell was uncharacteristically imprecise about whether serving out his "term" meant Chair (26) or Governor (28).
Then, a connected FT commentator said Powell will "probably" stay thru 28.
Today, Powell declined to answer.
ft.com/content/e7140acd-cb22…
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Apr 15
Powell will remain Governor and Chair of FOMC come 16 May, but Chair pro tem of the Fed Board?
He says yes, but others not so sure. Bowman/VC Jefferson/Waller are some Trump could name acting Chair.
After Cook, Powell testimony, another lawsuit?
youtube.com/watch?v=k5Hhzx5B…
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Derek Tang retweeted
Fed officials "really don’t want to see inflation expectations rise," said @macroderek. "The problem is, they don’t know how close to the edge they are."
Mar 29
Policymakers suggest interest rates could go up or down. The most probable path may be no move at all. on.wsj.com/4uVCkzo
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Mar 26
Amid the uncertainty with Powell's plans after Chair term ends mid-May, I wonder what VC Jefferson plans.
His VC term ends Sep 2027, >1y into the new Chair (Warsh) term.
He's less less likely than Barr to self-demote. But if he did, then 22/96 pro-tem cases are more similar.
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Derek Tang retweeted
7 May 2025
We told clients mid-Apr Powell was uncharacteristically imprecise about whether serving out his "term" meant Chair (26) or Governor (28).
Then, a connected FT commentator said Powell will "probably" stay thru 28.
Today, Powell declined to answer.
ft.com/content/e7140acd-cb22…
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Mar 13
There is now a clearer path to Warsh's accession by late May as @SenThomTillis not not inclined to advancing any Fed nominees (e.g., Warsh) until the Powell probe was put to rest.
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Mar 13
However, "Pirro, who CNBC has learned planned to appeal the ruling, is set to give an update on the probe of Powell on Friday afternoon," per @cnbc @_DanMangan
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