Nobody wants to say this out loud 🙁
Every KOL, every TA account, every newsletter is calling the same Q4 bottom.
That's not analysis, I feel like that's gonna be a crowded trade.
Just lets take a look what actually happened past cycles:
In 2018 bottom didnt come until December 15th when most had given up and stopped posting.
2022 bottom didnt come until November, triggered by FTX collapsing, a catalyst nobody had on their bingo card.
In neither case did the bottom arrive on teh date the crowd was waiting for. It arrived when the crowd stopped waiting.
Just ask yourself: who benefits when half a million retail traders all circle around the same entry?
Well not the retail traders.
Wintermute, Jump, Cumberland, GSR. They dont need to read your threads, they read positioning, social heatmap, and when positioning is the one sided trade is obvious: let the retail buy the "bottom", let it fail, wait for capitulation, then accumulate in the dead month nobodys watching.
The real bottom comes when: CT has gone silent, The Q4 bottom guys have pivoted to "cycle is dead", your group chat has stopped / slowed down talking about crypto, when you start thinking to get a real life job, when you're thinking to sell the last token in your portfolio because you feel like it's never gonna end or a catalyst nobody predicted that breaks the tape.
It's never something we expect.
That's not October. October has too much hope already. Too much positioning.
My bet is that it's a month nobody circled yet. A catalyst nobody thought about. Or maybe we already lived that catalyst and we're in a slow transitioning process.
You think you're early. You're the exit liquidity for someone who already bought.
Save this post. We'll see who's right.