Feels like
$TRUMP has broken the spirit of majority of market participants — even veterans worth 7-8 figs who have missed their fair share of 100x’s are posting like they’re spiritually damaged. Everyone’s drinking some sort of depression kool-aid. I call this mass hysteria caused by a few factors:
•
$TRUMP is the fastest token ever to hit a multi-billion dollar mcap
• Everyone has been conditioned by a brutal bear for 3 years, then the bull even felt like a bear because of dispersion
• Majority are finally making *some* money only to see something that shatters their mental model of where they are in the cycle
• Market at a place where it’s closer to the top than the bottom — we used to talk about a cycle top being years away, but now it feels months away (seen estimates ranging from March, October, to EOY)
• Everyone feels like
$TRUMP might cause the end of this industry as we know it in 3-4 years. ‘Last play of the Last cycle forever’ vibes.
• Ethereum has done absolutely nothing, and had its millshake drank by Sol and L2 liquidity dispersion. Long term Consensus bets got cooked.
Crypto has always been a deeply insecure industry. Every single cycle, events transpire which raise the probability of crypto never coming back again to 50% . This is why there’s a tendency to spin narratives and tokens around powerful people, for example Elon Musk and now Trump. Nothing new under the sun — first doge/elon now trump/trump.
If you were around for the axie, Luna, sandbox, shib, solana, bnb (and so many more) run-ups, you know this is nothing — the only notable thing is the time it’s taken for
$trump to hit multibillions. But what do you expect? He’s POTUS.
For the market today:
• Go look at where TOTAL3 is, and tell me we’ve topped and this is the last play ever. You can’t.
• SPX is 50% from the 2021 crypto top and you think there isn’t enough global liquidity to create at bare minimum the same conditions we saw in prior cycles?
• Best
$SOL cooker of this cycle, the flows on this sent SOL to all time highs. The cycle got easier now because you know where to look.
• Silly to think ETH won’t make a new ATH — but when it does, we’re close to the end. Even in 2021, ETH hit the first ATH around a month after BTC (April/May). Cycle ended May 21 (only for a brief encore a few months later).
This is literally just the second $10b cooker this cycle. Last cycle there were like 50 (rough guess). But guess what? A lot of the money was actually made from second and third order effects.
BNB up huge -> Cake went to gorillions.
LINK up huge -> Vaporware oracles to gorillions.
Olympus up huge -> an entire season to ohm forks going to billions
And so on.
POTUS launches a $63B token -> every other token looks small in comparison
The ceiling just got blown right off what a ‘reasonable’ valuation for anything crypto is.
Easy money season starts now — just long the things that are going up.
And no, not the last cycle.
Pre.