This image has an uncomfortable implication:
AAA budgets are not what make a game succeed, interest does.
And a small team can create interest just as well.
If that becomes the norm, the outcome is brutal: even more releases, even more noise, and even fewer jobs in an industry where jobs are already scarce.
But big productions are not doomed. They just need to stop shipping “the next X” with a different skin. Studios with unique IP (and not totally exhausted IP) still win. The graveyard is full of the 27th FPS, the 18th survival, the 9th “live service” that offered nothing players hadn’t already seen.
My two takeaways:
- More experienced devs should seriously consider going indie and bringing fresh ideas to the market.
- Big companies without a strong IP need to build one from zero. Trend chasing because it worked for someone else is a reliable way to burn years and millions.